176 Aztec Drive Dr Lot 4042 · Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$60,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 400 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 2007 Fair condition 4,792 sqft lot $150/sqft · 37% above area Est $44k · 37% over $163/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

1 Bedroom parkmodel with large sleeping loft for those added guests. 1 and 1/2 bathrooms. Fire place for those cooler nights. Large open level stoned lot with shed. Walk to clubhouse and most ammenities. Lots of fun for all. .

Key facts

• Fire place
• Large sleeping loft
• Walk to clubhouse

Tags

• LARGE SLEEPING LOFT
• FIRE PLACE
• OPEN LEVEL STONED LOT
• WALK TO CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 55' x 88' x 52' x 87' (about 0.11 acres); Zoned commercial; Located in the Trails End subdivision; directions via Trails End security gate to Aztec Drive, Lot #4042
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual and one-time fees; Annual association fee listed; Association covers electricity, security, trash, and sewer; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, playground, basketball and shuffleboard courts, game room, recreation room, restaurant, and racquetball

Exterior

• Parking: On-site open parking
• Security: 24-hour security; Gated community
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected (public sewer)
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property used for recreational/vacant purposes; Vacation RV/Trailer subtype noted
• Construction: Fiberglass roof; No basement or foundation details specified
• Exterior features: Deck; Fire pit; Shed(s); Has a view; Cleared, level, interior lot; Gravel road access via a private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Free-standing refrigerator; Free-standing gas range; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Open floor plan; Ceiling fans; Fireplace in the great room/living room
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups inside (none specified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 5.9% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.59%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,786
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: 37.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
Lot 4727 Crow Ln	0.28mi	2/1.0 (+1)	400 (0%)	11mo	$34,000	$85	71
3911 Aztec Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0 (+1)	375 (-6%)	24mo	$53,000	$141	62
193 Tribes Dr	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	400 (0%)	12mo	$47,500	$119	57
111 Owego Ln Unit Owego Lane	0.30mi	1/1.0	420 (+5%)	22mo	$64,500	$154	57
149 Arapajo Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0 (+1)	400 (0%)	23mo	$76,000	$190	56
173 Shohola Ln Ln	0.70mi	1/1.0	420 (+5%)	24mo	$56,500	$135	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $59,181
• Equity at exit: $54,053

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.15×
• Total profit: $153,766
• Equity at exit: $116,567

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $731

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $60,000 Active 227-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $4,394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,055
• After-tax cash flow: $3,917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This parkmodel has fair condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value. Key areas for improvement include painting, updating cabinetry, and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Standard cabinetry may need updating or touch-up paint.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures may need cleaning or minor repairs.
• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration may require touch-up or minor repainting.
• Minor Landscaping — Minimal landscaping could benefit from some enhancements to increase curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and rental value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency, improving both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Standard cabinetry may need updating or touch-up paint.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Standard fixtures may need cleaning or minor repairs.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Some discoloration may require touch-up or minor repainting.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Minimal landscaping could benefit from some enhancements to increase curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency, improving both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $60,000 PWMLS