Harvest Ridge 1419 Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$230,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,419 sqft · SingleFamily · 1095 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Harvest Ridge, Elgin's most prestigious and award-winning master-planned community, where thoughtful design and true community spirit come together. With new homes starting in the $180s and options ranging from 2 to 5 bedrooms, there’s something here for every stage of life. Built around the idea that a neighborhood should be more than just a place to live, Harvest Ridge is designed to foster connection-with inviting front porches that encourage conversation, and a wide range of amenities that bring people together. Spend your days enjoying the resort-style pool, fishing ponds, playscapes, event lawns, food trucks, coffee bar, basketball and sports fields, and more. A full-time Lifestyle Director ensures there's always something happening, from seasonal festivals to family movie nights. Located just east of Austin near Highway 290, and now home to a brand-new onsite elementary school, Harvest Ridge offers the perfect balance of small-town charm and modern convenience. It's more than a neighborhood-it's a community built for belonging.

Key facts

• Listed 1094 days

🏗️ New construction. The $230,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,736.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $231k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1288 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1095 days — a 12% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $199,970 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1095 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,736
• List price: $230,990
• Delta: -23.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14016 Ballast Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+4%)	2mo	$255,000	$172	72
104 Cavalry Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+0%)	0mo	$220,000	$154	68
139 Daylily Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-7%)	0mo	$223,810	$169	66
165 Cider Creek Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,501 (+6%)	3mo	$266,710	$178	66
141 Summer Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-7%)	3mo	$223,750	$169	65
108 Bountiful Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+8%)	4mo	$280,360	$183	64
136 Summer Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+8%)	3mo	$279,360	$182	64
14504 Martial Eagle Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+6%)	4mo	$245,000	$163	62
142 Cider Creek Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+8%)	0mo	$266,050	$174	62
120 Shenandoah Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,303 (-8%)	4mo	$220,000	$169	54
14504 Wahlbergs Way	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-8%)	4mo	$272,900	$209	49
14708 Wahlbergs Way	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,580 (+11%)	2mo	$279,900	$177	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $132,412
• Equity at exit: $271,828

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $415,801
• Equity at exit: $586,206

Cash invested: $84,486 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 116 active · 76 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.5 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $260,490 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 118 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 1288
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,582
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,526/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,640

Max offer price $228,594

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-297	-5% $-401	+0% $-505	+5% $-610	+10% $-714
Rent	-10% $-663	-5% $-584	+0% $-505	+5% $-426	+10% $-347
Rate	-1.0pp $-354	-0.5pp $-429	base $-505	+0.5pp $-584	+1.0pp $-663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,434
• Closing costs: $9,052
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
164 Appleberry Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,000	$1.27	10d	1	0.06mi
11801 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$2,000	$1.34	74d	1	0.11mi
164 Harvest Ridge Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,000	$1.28	1d	1	0.11mi
116 Appleberry Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,690	$1.24	74d	1	0.12mi
149 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1770	$1,995	$1.13	115d	1	0.14mi
149 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	1770	$1,995	$1.13	12d	1	0.14mi
149 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	1770	$1,995	$1.13	10d	1	0.14mi
105 Appleberry Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1668	$1,999	$1.20	115d	1	0.17mi
12313 Token Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$2,500	$1.68	74d	1	0.17mi
12201 Token Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	88d	1	0.17mi
12313 Token Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$2,200	$1.48	3d	1	0.18mi
109 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,690	$1.27	112d	1	0.18mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,750	$1.13	130d	1	0.18mi
13016 Roving Pass Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1859	$2,000	$1.08	125d	1	0.22mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,700	$1.12	128d	1	0.26mi
14213 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	109d	1	0.27mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	184d	1	0.28mi
14205 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,695	$0.94	88d	1	0.29mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	143d	1	0.32mi
18912 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	29d	1	0.33mi
122 Bluestem Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,850	$1.22	3d	1	0.33mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,185	$1.23	0d	1	0.35mi
1600 North Avenue C Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	819	$1,977	$2.41	0d	26	0.36mi
107 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,695	$1.17	0d	1	0.37mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	145d	1	0.39mi
18732 Imperial Eagle Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1540	$1,660	$1.08	27d	1	0.40mi
18744 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,750	$1.15	101d	1	0.40mi
18617 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	3d	1	0.40mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,845	$1.03	134d	1	0.41mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1110	$1,545	$1.39	0d	15	0.44mi
158 Daylily Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,700	$1.20	45d	1	0.45mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	115d	1	0.47mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,850	$1.04	101d	1	0.47mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	164d	1	0.48mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	1d	1	0.48mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,785	$1.17	134d	1	0.50mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	158d	1	0.52mi
121 Shenandoah Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,800	$1.03	10d	1	0.55mi
121 Shenandoah Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,800	$1.03	34d	1	0.55mi
18404 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,785	$1.17	10d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $230,990 Active 1095 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $230,990 Active 1094 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $230,990 Active 1093 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $230,990 Active 1092 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $230,990 Active 1091 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $230,990 Active 1089 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $230,990 Active 1088 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $230,990 Active 1087 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $230,990 Active 1086 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $230,990 Active 1085 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $230,990 Active 1084 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $230,990 Active 1083 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $230,990 Active 1082 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $230,990 Active 1081 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $230,990 Active 1080 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $230,990 Active 1079 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $230,990 Active 1078 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $230,990 Active 1077 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $230,990 Active 1076 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $230,990 Active 1075 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $230,990 Active 1074 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $230,990 Active 1073 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $230,990 Active 1072 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $230,990 Active 1071 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $230,990 Active 1070 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $230,990 Active 1069 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $230,990 Active 1068 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $230,990 Active 1067 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $230,990 Active 1066 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $230,990 Active 1065 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $230,990 Active 1064 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $230,990 Active 1063 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $230,990 Active 1062 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $230,990 Active 1061 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $230,990 Active 1060 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $230,990 Active 1059 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $230,990 Active 1058 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $230,990 Active 1057 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $230,990 Active 1056 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $230,990 Active 1055 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $230,990 Active 1054 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $230,990 Active 1053 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $230,990 Active 1051 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $230,990 Active 1050 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $230,990 Active 1049 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $230,990 Active 1048 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $230,990 Active 1047 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $230,990 Active 1046 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $230,990 Active 1045 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $230,990 Active 1044 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,902
• − Property taxes: −$4,526
• − Insurance: −$1,509
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$8,778
• Taxable loss: −$11,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,774
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can improve the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Elgin El F TX #4,180/4,322 Nat'l #37,719/41,679 Middle Elgin Middle F TX #1,327/1,662 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Elgin H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 94,260 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $230,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $260,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $270,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $280,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $260,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-02-21 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-02-01 Price Changed $270,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $290,990 Zillow