538 Boykins Ln · Baldwin, FL 32234

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1986 3,049 sqft lot Est $153k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled home on corner lot in the heart of Baldwin and an easy commute to Jacksonville/Lake City/Gainesville just off of I-10. Updates include a new roof, plumbing, instant hot water tank, Shaker style kitchen cabinets with 42'' uppers. Stainless steel appliances, eating bar, interior/exterior paint, vinyl wood style plank flooring in main areas and wet areas with carpet in bedrooms. Enjoy the country style front porch or relaxing on the small deck in the backyard. This makes a move in ready house for the first-time homeowner, business owner or just looking to get out of the city for a slower paced environment. Property is zoned CMU.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Indoor laundry area
• Concrete block gem

Tags

• CONCRETE BLOCK GEM
• CORNER LOT HOME
• SPLIT-BED PLAN
• VINYL FLOORING
• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential use
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Front porch; Rear porch; Smoke detector(s); Corner lot; City street frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Breakfast nook; Ceiling fan(s); Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#575 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $536 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.91%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,640
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
611 Us 301 Hwy S	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+11%)	4mo	$99,000	$93	75
340 Canal St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (+5%)	6mo	$300,000	$298	63
159 Gold St E	0.73mi	3/1.0	980 (+2%)	5mo	$156,000	$159	58
475 Highway 90 E	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-4%)	15mo	$76,500	$83	58
35 Wesley Ct	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,071 (+12%)	22mo	$214,000	$200	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $27,283
• Equity at exit: $37,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $78,866
• Equity at exit: $47,003

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,886/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
512 US Highway 301 S Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,195	$1.66	4d	1	0.03mi
379 Orange Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,700	$1.69	23d	1	0.58mi
379 Orange Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,700	$1.69	20d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-05-05
   status Active
4. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-21
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-04-08
   listed $119,000 Active
7. 2023-04-26
   soldstatus $182,000 Sold 649-char remark

   Show marketing remark (649 chars)

   Remodeled home on corner lot in the heart of Baldwin and an easy commute to Jacksonville/Lake City/Gainesville just off of I-10. Updates include a new roof, plumbing, instant hot water tank, Shaker style kitchen cabinets with 42'' uppers. Stainless steel appliances, eating bar, interior/exterior paint, vinyl wood style plank flooring in main areas and wet areas with carpet in bedrooms. Enjoy the country style front porch or relaxing on the small deck in the backyard. This makes a move in ready house for the first-time homeowner, business owner or just looking to get out of the city for a slower paced environment. Property is zoned CMU.

8. 2023-04-26
   soldstatus $182,000

   Show marketing remark (649 chars)

   Remodeled home on corner lot in the heart of Baldwin and an easy commute to Jacksonville/Lake City/Gainesville just off of I-10. Updates include a new roof, plumbing, instant hot water tank, Shaker style kitchen cabinets with 42'' uppers. Stainless steel appliances, eating bar, interior/exterior paint, vinyl wood style plank flooring in main areas and wet areas with carpet in bedrooms. Enjoy the country style front porch or relaxing on the small deck in the backyard. This makes a move in ready house for the first-time homeowner, business owner or just looking to get out of the city for a slower paced environment. Property is zoned CMU.

9. 2023-04-19
   status Pending 649-char remark

   Show marketing remark (649 chars)

   Remodeled home on corner lot in the heart of Baldwin and an easy commute to Jacksonville/Lake City/Gainesville just off of I-10. Updates include a new roof, plumbing, instant hot water tank, Shaker style kitchen cabinets with 42'' uppers. Stainless steel appliances, eating bar, interior/exterior paint, vinyl wood style plank flooring in main areas and wet areas with carpet in bedrooms. Enjoy the country style front porch or relaxing on the small deck in the backyard. This makes a move in ready house for the first-time homeowner, business owner or just looking to get out of the city for a slower paced environment. Property is zoned CMU.

10. 2023-03-23
    historical Active - Contingent 649-char remark

    Show marketing remark (649 chars)

    Remodeled home on corner lot in the heart of Baldwin and an easy commute to Jacksonville/Lake City/Gainesville just off of I-10. Updates include a new roof, plumbing, instant hot water tank, Shaker style kitchen cabinets with 42'' uppers. Stainless steel appliances, eating bar, interior/exterior paint, vinyl wood style plank flooring in main areas and wet areas with carpet in bedrooms. Enjoy the country style front porch or relaxing on the small deck in the backyard. This makes a move in ready house for the first-time homeowner, business owner or just looking to get out of the city for a slower paced environment. Property is zoned CMU.

11. 2023-03-13
    price $179,900 649-char remark

    Show marketing remark (649 chars)

    Remodeled home on corner lot in the heart of Baldwin and an easy commute to Jacksonville/Lake City/Gainesville just off of I-10. Updates include a new roof, plumbing, instant hot water tank, Shaker style kitchen cabinets with 42'' uppers. Stainless steel appliances, eating bar, interior/exterior paint, vinyl wood style plank flooring in main areas and wet areas with carpet in bedrooms. Enjoy the country style front porch or relaxing on the small deck in the backyard. This makes a move in ready house for the first-time homeowner, business owner or just looking to get out of the city for a slower paced environment. Property is zoned CMU.

12. 2023-02-12
    listed $185,000 Active 649-char remark

    Show marketing remark (649 chars)

    Remodeled home on corner lot in the heart of Baldwin and an easy commute to Jacksonville/Lake City/Gainesville just off of I-10. Updates include a new roof, plumbing, instant hot water tank, Shaker style kitchen cabinets with 42'' uppers. Stainless steel appliances, eating bar, interior/exterior paint, vinyl wood style plank flooring in main areas and wet areas with carpet in bedrooms. Enjoy the country style front porch or relaxing on the small deck in the backyard. This makes a move in ready house for the first-time homeowner, business owner or just looking to get out of the city for a slower paced environment. Property is zoned CMU.

13. 2021-11-23
    soldstatus $61,000
14. 2018-02-14
    historical 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    This is a Concrete Block home with central heat and air, Large front porch runs the length of the home. Located on the corner of U.S. rout 301 and Boykin lane. Needs very little TLC. Great for home owner or investor home rents for $900 a month. Cash buyers only please.

15. 2018-02-10
    price $43,400 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    This is a Concrete Block home with central heat and air, Large front porch runs the length of the home. Located on the corner of U.S. rout 301 and Boykin lane. Needs very little TLC. Great for home owner or investor home rents for $900 a month. Cash buyers only please.

16. 2018-01-24
    price $44,400 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    This is a Concrete Block home with central heat and air, Large front porch runs the length of the home. Located on the corner of U.S. rout 301 and Boykin lane. Needs very little TLC. Great for home owner or investor home rents for $900 a month. Cash buyers only please.

17. 2017-08-15
    listed $44,900 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    This is a Concrete Block home with central heat and air, Large front porch runs the length of the home. Located on the corner of U.S. rout 301 and Boykin lane. Needs very little TLC. Great for home owner or investor home rents for $900 a month. Cash buyers only please.

18. 2017-07-05
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,886 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,886 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$2,886
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $3,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$886
• After-tax cash flow: $4,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Baldwin

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #575
• US rank: #10929

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baldwin, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+240.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $119,000 realMLS
• 2023-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-26 Sold (MLS) $182,000 realMLS
• 2023-04-19 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-03-23 Contingent — realMLS
• 2023-03-13 Price Changed $179,900 realMLS
• 2023-02-12 Listed $185,000 realMLS
• 2021-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-14 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2018-02-10 Price Changed $43,400 realMLS
• 2018-01-24 Price Changed $44,400 realMLS
• 2017-08-15 Listed $44,900 realMLS
• 2017-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,886 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.