809 Cub Ln · Richmond, TX 77469

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1974 5,250 sqft lot $155/sqft · 5% above area Est $162k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming property with an abundance of natural light and convenient access to highways. This 3-bedroom home features a fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor activities. The kitchen boasts a lovely layout with a gas stove and refrigerator. Ideal for a , this clean and well-maintained house is ready for its new owner. Schedule your appointment today to see all that this property has to offer.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Gas stove
• Refrigerator

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• NATURAL LIGHT
• GAS STOVE
• REFRIGERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.6% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T L Pink El (math 32% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 486 students, 93% FRL); Lamar J H (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 1,246 students, 71% FRL); Lamar Cons H S (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,762 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 43% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1345 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.94%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,522
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: 5.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Clay St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,051 (-4%)	3mo	$249,000	$237	74
508 Center St	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (+3%)	24mo	$220,000	$195	61
1105 Yorktown St	0.54mi	3/1.0	988 (-10%)	1mo	$164,900	$167	58
806 Center St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+5%)	22mo	$184,900	$161	57
1716 Carver Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,190 (+9%)	22mo	$160,000	$134	42
1202 Fort St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+11%)	11mo	$250,000	$205	38
1206 Fort St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,241 (+13%)	21mo	$240,000	$193	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-17,950
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,170
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1345
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,305/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,567

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $284	+0% $235	+5% $187	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $162	+0% $235	+5% $309	+10% $383
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $279	base $235	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1108 Fort St Unit 1108 Richmond, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	19d	1	0.62mi
1217 Westwood Dr Unit 424 Rosenberg, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,129	$1.25	7d	1	1.01mi
1217 Westwood Dr Unit 1274 Rosenberg, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,113	$1.24	1d	1	1.01mi
4932 Vancouver Blvd Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$3,500	$2.65	15d	1	1.38mi
2010 Thompson Rd Richmond, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	757	$1,100	$1.45	1d	2	1.40mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $170,000 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Welcome to this charming property with an abundance of natural light and convenient access to highways. This 3-bedroom home features a fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor activities. The kitchen boasts a lovely layout with a gas stove and refrigerator. Ideal for a , this clean and well-maintained house is ready for its new owner. Schedule your appointment today to see all that this property has to offer.

16. 2025-07-12
    historical $1,600
17. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,600
18. 2025-06-30
    historical $1,600
19. 2025-06-11
    listed $1,600
20. 2024-04-10
    historical $1,400
21. 2024-04-05
    listed $1,400
22. 2024-04-01
    soldstatus
23. 2024-03-29
    soldstatus Sold 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful property with a natural color palette, exuding warmth and tranquility. The kitchen boasts a nice backsplash, adding a touch of elegance to your culinary experience. The primary bathroom features good under sink storage, ensuring a clutter-free sanctuary. A fenced-in backyard provides a secure and private space for outdoor activities, while a covered sitting area invites you to relax and unwind. Additionally, this home features fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout, creating a modern and inviting atmosphere. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home!

24. 2024-02-19
    status Pending 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful property with a natural color palette, exuding warmth and tranquility. The kitchen boasts a nice backsplash, adding a touch of elegance to your culinary experience. The primary bathroom features good under sink storage, ensuring a clutter-free sanctuary. A fenced-in backyard provides a secure and private space for outdoor activities, while a covered sitting area invites you to relax and unwind. Additionally, this home features fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout, creating a modern and inviting atmosphere. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home!

25. 2024-02-13
    status Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful property with a natural color palette, exuding warmth and tranquility. The kitchen boasts a nice backsplash, adding a touch of elegance to your culinary experience. The primary bathroom features good under sink storage, ensuring a clutter-free sanctuary. A fenced-in backyard provides a secure and private space for outdoor activities, while a covered sitting area invites you to relax and unwind. Additionally, this home features fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout, creating a modern and inviting atmosphere. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home!

26. 2024-01-28
    historical 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful property with a natural color palette, exuding warmth and tranquility. The kitchen boasts a nice backsplash, adding a touch of elegance to your culinary experience. The primary bathroom features good under sink storage, ensuring a clutter-free sanctuary. A fenced-in backyard provides a secure and private space for outdoor activities, while a covered sitting area invites you to relax and unwind. Additionally, this home features fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout, creating a modern and inviting atmosphere. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home!

27. 2023-12-21
    listed $166,000 Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful property with a natural color palette, exuding warmth and tranquility. The kitchen boasts a nice backsplash, adding a touch of elegance to your culinary experience. The primary bathroom features good under sink storage, ensuring a clutter-free sanctuary. A fenced-in backyard provides a secure and private space for outdoor activities, while a covered sitting area invites you to relax and unwind. Additionally, this home features fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout, creating a modern and inviting atmosphere. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home!

28. 2023-12-08
    soldstatus
29. 2023-12-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,305 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,305 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$3,305
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $174
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$42
• After-tax cash flow: $2,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Richmond, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 158,237
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $1,400 HARMLS
• 2024-04-05 Listed for Rent $1,400 HARMLS
• 2024-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-01-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-12-21 Listed $166,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,305 · -29.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.