263 Wilson Lake Ln · Hot Springs, AR 71901

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1997 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RENTAL PROJECT! Looking to make your money work for you? Well, look at this LSSD property, with no restrictions, and the electrical is already set. This 2/2 mobile home will make a great rental after completing water/ sewer hookups and a small rehab. Don't miss this one, call today!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Municipal electric (Entergy); Some utilities available off-property
• Home design: Metal/Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Construction: Not permanent foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Rural property; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl floors; Laundry room; Free-standing stove
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Lakeside School District (urban): math 47% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #28 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $45k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.63%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $28,575
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $71,068
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71901

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $368/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $361

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3345 Malvern Rd Unit B Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.0	1023	$1,125	$1.10	43d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $45,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 New Listing 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 New Listing 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 New Listing 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 New Listing 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 283-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $45,000 New Listing 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $368 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $368 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$368
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,031
• − Management: −$1,031
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,404
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,537
• After-tax cash flow: $5,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeside School District
• NCES district ID: 0508670
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $52,849
• Composite: 39.76/100
• National rank: #3884
• State rank: #28 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 28,937
• Household income: $53,514
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 961.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.75%
• Current HPI: 317.2542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $45,000 HSBOR
• 2026-06-11 Listed $45,000 CARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-15 Sold (MLS) $12,000 CARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Sold (MLS) $12,000 HSBOR
• 2024-03-14 Pending — HSBOR
• 2024-03-14 Pending — CARMLS
• 2024-03-11 Relisted — HSBOR
• 2024-03-11 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Contingent — HSBOR
• 2024-02-27 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2024-01-13 Listed $15,000 HSBOR
• 2024-01-13 Listed $15,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+23.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $368 · +91.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.