425 S Villa San Marco Dr #301 · St. Augustine South, FL 32086

$172,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,085 sqft · Condo public records · 232 Days on market

Built 2004 $266/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This very well maintained condo is in the sought after Villa San Marco Community. Owner occupied for the last 5 years. Split open floor plan. Newer appliances. Master bedroom has a walk in closet. Stackable washer/dryer, screened in porch with a good view, custom blinds and a reverse osmosis drinking water system in kitchen. Recently replaced toilets and sinks in both bathrooms. Plank flooring throughout. Close walk to pool. 10 min from the beach and downtown. Villa San Marco residents enjoy a clubhouse, a beautiful pool, fitness center, playground, picnic area and more. Historically low HOA fees include water, sewer, and garbage. One of the most financially stable Condo Complexes in St Augustine. The listing agent has been President of the Board since it was built in 2005 and owns 6 units and has made over 200 sales in the complex. He will be glad to answer any question that you have. All Furniture is negotiable.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Close walk to pool
• Plank flooring

Tags

• WALK IN CLOSET
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• RECENTLY REPLACED TOILETS
• RECENTLY REPLACED SINKS
• PLANK FLOORING
• CLOSE WALK TO POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.1% in St. Augustine South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 400 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $134k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.49%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,063
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,719
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32086

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,513/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$266
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,729

Max offer price $172,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 Ridge Lake Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$2,200	$1.50	8d	1	0.30mi
70 Ridge Lake Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,025	$1.38	24d	1	0.35mi
421 S Hidden Tree Dr Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,100	$1.56	24d	1	0.51mi
29 Buckley Ct Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1211	$2,300	$1.90	24d	1	0.54mi
129 Moultrie Village Ln Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1384	$1,750	$1.26	20d	1	0.55mi
105 Whitland Way Unit 1 St. Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1499	$2,300	$1.53	3d	1	0.61mi
1845 Old Moultrie Rd #32 Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,650	$1.90	24d	1	0.66mi
253 Cowry Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1375	$1,995	$1.45	24d	1	0.90mi
100 Inspire Way St. Augustine, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1393	$2,355	$1.69	24d	120	0.92mi
1419 San Juline Cir Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	1.5	804	$1,649	$2.05	14d	1	1.15mi
93 Palma Dr Saint Augustine, FL	2.0–4.0	2.5	1506	$1,995	$1.32	3d	18	1.26mi
130 Shipyard Way St. Augustine, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1137	$2,612	$2.30	2d	68	1.38mi
113 Pamplona Dr Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1273	$2,095	$1.65	24d	1	1.38mi
890 Poinsettia Rd Unit B St. Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,590	$1.54	24d	1	1.39mi
350 Laurel Dr , FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,852	$1.85	2d	13	1.41mi
909 S Ponce de Leon Blvd Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$3,150	$2.81	3d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $266 · $3,192/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $172,000 Active 232 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $172,000 Active 228 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $172,000 Active 227 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $172,000 Active 226 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $172,000 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   price $172,000 927-char remark

   Show marketing remark (927 chars)

   This very well maintained condo is in the sought after Villa San Marco Community. Owner occupied for the last 5 years. Split open floor plan. Newer appliances. Master bedroom has a walk in closet. Stackable washer/dryer, screened in porch with a good view, custom blinds and a reverse osmosis drinking water system in kitchen. Recently replaced toilets and sinks in both bathrooms. Plank flooring throughout. Close walk to pool. 10 min from the beach and downtown. Villa San Marco residents enjoy a clubhouse, a beautiful pool, fitness center, playground, picnic area and more. Historically low HOA fees include water, sewer, and garbage. One of the most financially stable Condo Complexes in St Augustine. The listing agent has been President of the Board since it was built in 2005 and owns 6 units and has made over 200 sales in the complex. He will be glad to answer any question that you have. All Furniture is negotiable.

7. 2026-03-25
   price $189,000 927-char remark

   Show marketing remark (927 chars)

   This very well maintained condo is in the sought after Villa San Marco Community. Owner occupied for the last 5 years. Split open floor plan. Newer appliances. Master bedroom has a walk in closet. Stackable washer/dryer, screened in porch with a good view, custom blinds and a reverse osmosis drinking water system in kitchen. Recently replaced toilets and sinks in both bathrooms. Plank flooring throughout. Close walk to pool. 10 min from the beach and downtown. Villa San Marco residents enjoy a clubhouse, a beautiful pool, fitness center, playground, picnic area and more. Historically low HOA fees include water, sewer, and garbage. One of the most financially stable Condo Complexes in St Augustine. The listing agent has been President of the Board since it was built in 2005 and owns 6 units and has made over 200 sales in the complex. He will be glad to answer any question that you have. All Furniture is negotiable.

8. 2025-10-18
   listed $197,000 Active 927-char remark

   Show marketing remark (927 chars)

   This very well maintained condo is in the sought after Villa San Marco Community. Owner occupied for the last 5 years. Split open floor plan. Newer appliances. Master bedroom has a walk in closet. Stackable washer/dryer, screened in porch with a good view, custom blinds and a reverse osmosis drinking water system in kitchen. Recently replaced toilets and sinks in both bathrooms. Plank flooring throughout. Close walk to pool. 10 min from the beach and downtown. Villa San Marco residents enjoy a clubhouse, a beautiful pool, fitness center, playground, picnic area and more. Historically low HOA fees include water, sewer, and garbage. One of the most financially stable Condo Complexes in St Augustine. The listing agent has been President of the Board since it was built in 2005 and owns 6 units and has made over 200 sales in the complex. He will be glad to answer any question that you have. All Furniture is negotiable.

9. 2020-08-28
   soldstatus $134,500
10. 2005-06-07
    soldstatus $164,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,513 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,513 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,513
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − HOA: −$3,192
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable income: $1,056
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$253
• After-tax cash flow: $3,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Augustine South

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,855
• Household income: $76,512
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 634.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.21%
• Current HPI: 306.2813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $172,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $189,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2025-10-18 Listed $197,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2020-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $134,500 Public Records
• 2005-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $164,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,513 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.