32 Rose Hill Dr · Natchez, MS 39120

$57,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 171 Days on market

Built 1975 3.13 ac lot Est $58k · at est. ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Cottage in the country on 3 acres of land. This home features 2 or 3 bedrooms with 2.5 bathrooms and a spacious open floor plan. Large front porch. Pretty piece of property with pecan trees, a large shed and a 16ft X 32ft shop with electricity. Priced to sell!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Bonus room
• Storage buildings

Tags

• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• FLAT LAND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 4.3% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $400 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,864 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.68%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $57,792
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Rose Hill Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$57,800	$43	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $33,317
• Equity at exit: $8,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $84,002
• Equity at exit: $4,997

Cash invested: $16,184 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$303
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $485

Max offer price $57,800

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $703	-5% $686	+0% $670	+5% $654	+10% $637
Rent	-10% $565	-5% $617	+0% $670	+5% $723	+10% $775
Rate	-1.0pp $699	-0.5pp $685	base $670	+0.5pp $655	+1.0pp $640

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,450
• Closing costs: $1,734
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   price $57,800
3. 2026-02-13
   price $64,000
4. 2026-01-22
   price $72,300
5. 2025-12-18
   price $77,500
6. 2025-12-01
   price $85,000
7. 2025-10-31
   price $94,900
8. 2025-09-29
   listed $102,500 Active
9. 2018-06-13
   soldstatus $96,000
10. 2018-06-12
    soldstatus 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Nice Cottage in the country on 3 acres of land. This home features 2 or 3 bedrooms with 2.5 bathrooms and a spacious open floor plan. Large front porch. Pretty piece of property with pecan trees, a large shed and a 16ft X 32ft shop with electricity. Priced to sell!

11. 2018-02-13
    listed $104,500 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Nice Cottage in the country on 3 acres of land. This home features 2 or 3 bedrooms with 2.5 bathrooms and a spacious open floor plan. Large front porch. Pretty piece of property with pecan trees, a large shed and a 16ft X 32ft shop with electricity. Priced to sell!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $674 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $674 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,238
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$289
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,280
• − Management: −$1,280
• − Depreciation: −$1,681
• Taxable income: $7,558
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $6,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-44.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $57,800 MLSU
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $64,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $72,300 MLSU
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $77,500 MLSU
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $85,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $94,900 MLSU
• 2025-09-29 Listed $102,500 MLSU
• 2018-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-12 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-02-13 Listed $104,500 MLSU

Property tax history

-6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $674 · +23.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.