1605 Lynchburg Loop · The Villages, FL 32162

$515,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,043 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2005 5,402 sqft lot Est $494k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NO BOND on this Designer Block and Stucco Bridgeport model located in the Village of Mallory, offering a private setting with no rear-facing lanai. This well-maintained home features three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and an additional half bath, providing added convenience for guests. Roof 2023, Water Heater 2023, HVAC 2018. Inside, you’ll find 10-foot ceilings throughout and textured walls that create an open and comfortable feel. The layout includes a formal dining area and an eat-in kitchen with a built-in desk space. The kitchen is equipped with maple cabinetry, pull-out shelving, and a breakfast bar. A spacious foyer welcomes you into the main living area. Flooring consists

Key facts

• Roof 2023
• Textured walls
• Water heater 2023

Tags

• STUCCO BRIDGEPORT MODEL
• ROOF 2023
• WATER HEATER 2023
• HVAC 2018
• 10-FOOT CEILINGS
• TEXTURED WALLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available to property
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community features: pool, fitness center, playground, park, dog park, golf, community mailbox, deed restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Association fee includes pool, maintenance of grounds, recreational facilities, and security; CDD present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces
• Security: Community provides security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; BB/HS internet available; Underground utilities; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in public records (living area and building area provided)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Mature landscaping; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $515k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $491k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $402k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $402k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,020/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $425k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $401,962 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $494,406
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1607 Mount Croghan Trl	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,075 (+2%)	1mo	$525,000	$253	90
1615 Snelling Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,887 (-8%)	0mo	$630,000	$334	76
1637 Mount Croghan Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,887 (-8%)	1mo	$457,500	$242	75
1466 Perry Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,927 (-6%)	2mo	$425,000	$221	73
550 Little River Path	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,012 (-2%)	3mo	$720,000	$358	68
565 Society Hill Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,899 (-7%)	2mo	$600,000	$316	68
778 Moore Ter	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,005 (-2%)	2mo	$480,000	$239	67
329 Bishopville Loop	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,075 (+2%)	1mo	$475,000	$229	66
1348 Honea Path	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,912 (-6%)	0mo	$434,000	$227	62
879 Astor Way	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,861 (-9%)	2mo	$335,000	$180	57
1398 Inman Mills Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,912 (-6%)	0mo	$420,000	$220	55
533 Inner Cir	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,171 (+6%)	1mo	$660,000	$304	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-88,613
• Equity at exit: $76,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-73,193
• Equity at exit: $44,528

Cash invested: $144,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,785/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$844
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,195

Max offer price $490,521

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $7	+0% $-139	+5% $-284	+10% $-430
Rent	-10% $-456	-5% $-297	+0% $-139	+5% $20	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $121	-0.5pp $-8	base $-139	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,750
• Closing costs: $15,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
898 Moses Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1911	$2,600	$1.36	23d	1	0.67mi
2111 Jem Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,800	$2.90	23d	1	0.92mi
731 Baisley Trl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1512	$4,500	$2.98	23d	1	1.20mi
1220 Turtle Island Rd Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	25d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $515,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $515,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $515,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $515,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $515,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $525,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $525,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $525,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $525,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $525,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $525,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $525,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $525,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $525,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    listed $525,000 Active
18. 2023-09-21
    soldstatus $425,000
19. 2011-05-05
    soldstatus $245,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,785 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,785 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,848
• − Property taxes: −$4,785
• − Insurance: −$2,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,859
• − Management: −$3,859
• − Depreciation: −$14,982
• Taxable loss: −$10,672
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,561
• After-tax cash flow: $899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $525,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,785 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.