9 Demi Ct · New Kingstown, PA 17015

$24,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1981 $27/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable living meets thoughtful updates at 9 Demi Ct in Carlisle. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features a refreshed interior, including a new kitchen, updated electric, new lighting in the kitchen and living room, and updated bedrooms and bathroom, giving the space a clean, move-in-ready feel. Step outside to enjoy a large deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a great lot within the community that provides a comfortable outdoor setting. Conveniently located just minutes from Carlisle, you’ll have easy access to shopping, dining, and major routes while still enjoying a quieter setting. Whether you're looking to downsize, invest, or find an affordable place to call home, this property offers great value and potential.

Key facts

• New lighting
• Large deck
• Great lot

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• UPDATED ELECTRIC
• NEW LIGHTING
• LARGE DECK
• GREAT LOT
• COMFORTABLE OUTDOOR SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 78.1% vs local median 2.3% in New Kingstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,606 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $23,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 78.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 256.63%
• DSCR: 12.42
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,000
• List price: $24,900
• Delta: -63.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Liam Ln	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	804 (-13%)	9mo	$6,000	$7	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.04×
• Total profit: $90,945
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 29.91×
• Total profit: $201,542
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$8 /mo · $92/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $1,491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $188

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 23%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,505	-5% $1,498	+0% $1,491	+5% $1,484	+10% $1,477
Rent	-10% $1,327	-5% $1,409	+0% $1,491	+5% $1,573	+10% $1,655
Rate	-1.0pp $1,504	-0.5pp $1,497	base $1,491	+0.5pp $1,485	+1.0pp $1,478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $24,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   status $24,900 Pending 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $24,900 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $24,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $24,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $24,900 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $24,900 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-04-20
    price $29,900 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Affordable living meets thoughtful updates at 9 Demi Ct in Carlisle. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features a refreshed interior, including a new kitchen, updated electric, new lighting in the kitchen and living room, and updated bedrooms and bathroom, giving the space a clean, move-in-ready feel. Step outside to enjoy a large deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a great lot within the community that provides a comfortable outdoor setting. Conveniently located just minutes from Carlisle, you’ll have easy access to shopping, dining, and major routes while still enjoying a quieter setting. Whether you're looking to downsize, invest, or find an affordable place to call home, this property offers great value and potential.

13. 2026-03-30
    listed $32,900 Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Affordable living meets thoughtful updates at 9 Demi Ct in Carlisle. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features a refreshed interior, including a new kitchen, updated electric, new lighting in the kitchen and living room, and updated bedrooms and bathroom, giving the space a clean, move-in-ready feel. Step outside to enjoy a large deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, along with a great lot within the community that provides a comfortable outdoor setting. Conveniently located just minutes from Carlisle, you’ll have easy access to shopping, dining, and major routes while still enjoying a quieter setting. Whether you're looking to downsize, invest, or find an affordable place to call home, this property offers great value and potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $92 · $8/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $243 · $20/mo
• Expected delta: +$151/yr (+$13/mo · 163.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$92
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $18,585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,460
• After-tax cash flow: $13,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Kingstown

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1606
• US rank: #21798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $29,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $32,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $92 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.