12027 Hawthorn Lake Dr #202 · Fort Myers, FL 33913

$439,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,284 sqft · Condo · 107 Days on market

Built 2021 $947/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Strategically Priced to Sell — Move-In Ready Resort Lifestyle in Arborwood! This beautifully upgraded second-floor condo in the sought-after Arborwood resort-style community offers over 2,000 square feet of turnkey living, western sunset views, and luxury finishes throughout. Built with newer concrete block construction, this meticulously maintained Fort Myers condo features an oversized two-car garage, private entry with mudroom, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, and a bright open-concept floor plan designed for entertaining. The designer kitchen showcases a massive island, marble backsplash, upgraded Kraus fixtures, GE appliances, LG dishwasher, and custom lighting. The split-

Key facts

• Massive island
• Upgraded kraus sink
• Convenient mudroom

Tags

• PRIVATE ENTRY
• CONVENIENT MUDROOM
• MASSIVE ISLAND
• BOLD MARBLE BACKSPLASH
• UPGRADED KRAUS SINK
• DESIGNER LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed conditionally (call), maximum of 2 pets
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fees; Association fee covers association management, cable TV, internet, grounds maintenance, pest control, road maintenance, sewer, street lights, security, trash and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis and pickleball courts, bocce court, playground, trails, sidewalks, business center, media room, library, cabana, restaurant, management, and more; Gated community with street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered spaces; Driveway; Paved parking
• Security: Security/high impact doors; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Two-story property; Entry level: 2; Faces east; Resale property
• Construction: Block, concrete, and stucco construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Balcony; Screened patio; Sprinkler/irrigation system (automatic); Security/high impact doors; Smoke detector(s); Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Disposal; Kitchen island; Pantry; Water purifier
• Bedrooms: Guest quarters (room type listed)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Dual sinks; Separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Impact glass windows with window coverings; Built-in features; Separate/formal dining room; Dual sinks; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Living/dining room combination; Pantry; Shower only (separate shower); Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; High speed internet; Home office; Split bedroom floorplan; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Laundry inside; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $400k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 811 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,317/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 276% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $400,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.08%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-70,751
• Equity at exit: $65,591

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-94,804
• Equity at exit: $38,035

Cash invested: $123,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33913

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 811
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,317 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$550 /mo · $6,598/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$947
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,117
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,047

Max offer price $439,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,975
• Closing costs: $13,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11012 Castlereagh St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2517	$12,000	$4.77	24d	1	0.64mi
11442 Tiverton Trce Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$9,500	$4.73	24d	1	0.67mi
10952 Clarendon St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1582	$4,000	$2.53	24d	1	0.76mi
11343 Tiverton Trce Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1685	$4,000	$2.37	3d	1	0.81mi
12062 Via Lighthouse Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$1,995	$1.06	3d	1	0.90mi
11225 Lithgow Ln Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	2153	$8,000	$3.72	24d	1	0.95mi
11619 Meadowrun Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2242	$2,495	$1.11	24d	1	1.05mi
12096 Ledgewood Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,850	$1.59	24d	1	1.05mi
10529 Casella Way #102 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$4,500	$2.61	24d	1	1.07mi
10520 Casella Way #101 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	24d	1	1.13mi
12021 Brassie Cir #201 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2343	$2,700	$1.15	3d	1	1.18mi
11801 Pine Timber Ln Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2508	$8,000	$3.19	24d	1	1.18mi
12016 Five Waters Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$4,500	$2.73	24d	1	1.19mi
12797 Vista Pine Cir Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	2146	$2,705	$1.26	3d	1	1.23mi
12171 Treeline Ave Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1321	$3,402	$2.58	3d	23	1.24mi
10455 Casella Way #202 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2319	$7,200	$3.10	24d	1	1.30mi
12908 New Market St #201 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2198	$3,000	$1.36	24d	1	1.32mi
11761 Pinewood Lakes Dr Fort Myers, FL	4.0	3.0	2528	$3,200	$1.27	3d	1	1.34mi
11541 Stonecreek Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2147	$3,300	$1.54	24d	1	1.38mi
12525 Astor Pl Unit 1049698P Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2174	$6,065	$2.79	15d	1	1.43mi
11617 Lakewood Preserve Pl Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2242	$3,100	$1.38	16d	1	1.50mi
11593 Lakewood Preserve Pl Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1985	$2,800	$1.41	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $947 · $11,364/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $439,900 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,900 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $439,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $439,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $439,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $439,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-05-07
   price $449,900
8. 2026-04-02
   price $465,000
9. 2026-03-18
   price $469,000
10. 2026-02-23
    listed $475,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,641
• − Property taxes: −$6,598
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,104
• − Management: −$5,104
• − HOA: −$11,364
• − Depreciation: −$12,797
• Taxable loss: −$4,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$962
• After-tax cash flow: $3,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 278,598
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,538
• Household income: $110,373
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 276.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.45%
• Current HPI: 221.7115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $449,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $465,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $469,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $475,000 FORTMLS