2451 State Route 31 · Canastota, NY 13032

$55,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1945 1.13 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Make time to check out this great property in Canastota. Each unit has two bedrooms, one bathroom and is conveniently located on State Route 31 close to all amenities.

Key facts

• 1.13 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1945

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.3% vs local median 3.8% in Canastota — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#332 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Chittenango Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #192 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 132.28%
• DSCR: 6.89
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.97×
• Total profit: $138,116
• Equity at exit: $49,548

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.89×
• Total profit: $321,781
• Equity at exit: $106,853

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13032

• Home prices YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $1,698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,736	-5% $1,717	+0% $1,698	+5% $1,679	+10% $1,660
Rent	-10% $1,490	-5% $1,594	+0% $1,698	+5% $1,801	+10% $1,905
Rate	-1.0pp $1,725	-0.5pp $1,712	base $1,698	+0.5pp $1,683	+1.0pp $1,669

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,630
Total (2 units)			$2,630

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $55,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $65,000 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Make time to check out this great property in Canastota. Each unit has two bedrooms, one bathroom and is conveniently located on State Route 31 close to all amenities.

16. 2026-05-01
    status Active 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Make time to check out this great property in Canastota. Each unit has two bedrooms, one bathroom and is conveniently located on State Route 31 close to all amenities.

17. 2026-04-17
    historical Active Under Contract 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Make time to check out this great property in Canastota. Each unit has two bedrooms, one bathroom and is conveniently located on State Route 31 close to all amenities.

18. 2026-03-12
    listed $69,900 Active 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Make time to check out this great property in Canastota. Each unit has two bedrooms, one bathroom and is conveniently located on State Route 31 close to all amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,525
• − Management: −$2,525
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $20,730
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,975
• After-tax cash flow: $15,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chittenango Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607470
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $62,521
• Composite: 54.34/100
• National rank: #1365
• State rank: #192 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canastota

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 12,964
• Population (ZIP): 12,964

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.44%
• Current HPI: 251.5471
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $65,000 CNYIS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $69,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,949 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.