12958 Magnolia Square Dr · Central, LA 70818

$413,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,337 sqft · SingleFamily · 183 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,011 sqft lot $177/sqft · 8% below area Est $452k · 8% under $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4.99% (5.73% APR) interest rate on GOV loans + closing cost assistance available! *TO BE ELIGIBLE FOR A LOW INTEREST RATE ON GOV LOANS & CLOSING COST ASSISTANCE, A BUYER MUST USE SELLER'S PREFERRED MORTGAGE & TITLE COMPANY. NOT AVAILABLE ON ALL HOMES. OTHER RESTRICTIONS APPLY. CONTACT COMMUNITY SALES MANAGER FOR DETAILS.* Estimated completion: September 2026 Discover The Francis, a thoughtfully designed 4BR/3BA home by Alvarez Construction offering 2,337 sq ft of open, functional living space. The kitchen, dining, and living areas flow together and feature granite countertops, custom cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a central island. The private owner's suite includes dual vanities, soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a covered rear patio, laundry room, and energy-efficient features throughout. This home also features smart-home monitoring, elegant soft-close cabinetry, quartz countertops, an oversized island ideal for gathering and entertaining, and a spacious primary closet.

Key facts

• 6,011 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $414k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-860 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (30.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (37.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#25 in LA, #4,761 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Central Community School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #9 of 98 in LA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Middle School (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #37 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 1,163 students, 53% FRL); Central High School (math 45% / reading 53%, grade D, #40 of 265 statewide, top 15%, 1,587 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $260,644 (37.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.90%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $452,000
• List price: $413,990
• Delta: -8.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13135 Magnolia Square Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,337 (0%)	5mo	$426,990	$183	92
12959 Magnolia Square Dr	0.03mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,152 (-8%)	0mo	$392,990	$183	80
13174 Elissa Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,236 (-4%)	6mo	$439,995	$197	73
13183 Elissa Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,236 (-4%)	8mo	$460,000	$206	71
13068 Elissa Ln	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,236 (-4%)	1mo	$439,900	$197	67
17195 Tidewater Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,072 (-11%)	13mo	$326,940	$158	60
12804 Pecos Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,144 (-8%)	2mo	$335,000	$156	58
13324 Minette Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,608 (+12%)	2mo	$555,000	$213	54
13179 Triple B Rd	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,438 (+4%)	2mo	$529,900	$217	52
7456 N Eisworth Ave	0.41mi	4/3.5	2,678 (+15%)	10mo	$549,900	$205	46
13512 Bogwood Ave	0.56mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,027 (-13%)	10mo	$330,000	$163	36
12633 Mustang Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,103 (-10%)	13mo	$226,500	$108	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-121,776
• Equity at exit: $61,727

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-176,258
• Equity at exit: $35,794

Cash invested: $115,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $418,300 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70818

• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,606 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,171
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$517 /mo · $6,210/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-860

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,695

Max offer price $289,562

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-574	-5% $-717	+0% $-860	+5% $-1,003	+10% $-1,146
Rent	-10% $-1,066	-5% $-963	+0% $-860	+5% $-757	+10% $-654
Rate	-1.0pp $-651	-0.5pp $-755	base $-860	+0.5pp $-967	+1.0pp $-1,076

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,498
• Closing costs: $12,420
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10112 Alderman Dr Baton Rouge, LA	4.0	2.0	1743	$2,200	$1.26	6d	1	1.40mi
10238 Grayton Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,200	$1.28	6d	1	1.43mi
10238 Grayton Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,400	$1.39	62d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $413,990 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $413,990 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $413,990 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $413,990 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $413,990 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $413,990 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $413,990 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $413,990 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $413,990 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $413,990 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $413,990 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $413,990 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $413,990 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $413,990 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $413,990 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $413,990 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $413,990 Active 162 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $413,990 Active 159 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $413,990 Active 158 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $413,990 Active 157 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $413,990 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $413,990 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $413,990 Active 153 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $413,990 Active 152 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $413,990 Active 151 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $413,990 Active 150 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $413,990 Active 149 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $413,990 Active 148 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $413,990 Active 147 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $413,990 Active 146 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $413,990 Active 145 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $413,990 Active 144 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $413,990 Active 143 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $413,990 Active 142 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $413,990 Active 141 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $413,990 Active 140 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $413,990 Active 139 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $413,990 Active 138 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $413,990 Active 137 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $413,990 Active 136 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $413,990 Active 135 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $413,990 Active 134 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $413,990 Active 133 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $413,990 Active 132 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $413,990 Active 131 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $413,990 Active 128 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $413,990 Active 126 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $413,990 Active 124 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $413,990 Active 122 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $413,990 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,190
• − Property taxes: −$6,210
• − Insurance: −$2,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,502
• − Management: −$2,502
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$12,043
• Taxable loss: −$17,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,305
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-maintained interior and exterior, making it a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting appearance ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2200125
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $66,584
• Composite: 46.02/100
• National rank: #2528
• State rank: #9 of 98 in LA

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Central

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #4761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Central, LA
• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 464,810 people
• City population: 10,403
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 9,370
• Household income: $78,432
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

---

Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 21% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.34%
• Current HPI: 169.9642
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $428,990 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $428,990 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $414,990 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $414,990 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $412,990 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $412,990 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $414,990 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $414,990 AcadianaMLS