31989 Chesapeake Dr · White Branch, MO 65355

$164,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Other public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1966 6,090 sqft lot $172/sqft · 136% above area Est $223k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This nice, roomy home features 3 beds 2 full baths, walk out basement with family room on lower level. Included is range & refrigerator. Has Vinyl siding & carport. Conveniently located close to town for shopping & medical. Motivated sellers!

Key facts

• 6,090 sq ft lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 48 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 50 x 121.8 (6,090 sq ft, ~0.14 acres)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (41.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.7% in White Branch — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $96,000 (41.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.77%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,740
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -25.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $28,059
• Equity at exit: $97,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $95,027
• Equity at exit: $173,000

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $960 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $563/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,241

Max offer price $125,693

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31641 Highline Dr Warsaw, MO	2.0	1.0	760	$960	$1.26	44d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $164,900 Active 369-char remark
17. 2021-03-08
    soldstatus 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    This nice, roomy home features 3 beds 2 full baths, walk out basement with family room on lower level. Included is range & refrigerator. Has Vinyl siding & carport. Conveniently located close to town for shopping & medical. Motivated sellers!

18. 2020-11-25
    listed $49,500 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    This nice, roomy home features 3 beds 2 full baths, walk out basement with family room on lower level. Included is range & refrigerator. Has Vinyl siding & carport. Conveniently located close to town for shopping & medical. Motivated sellers!

19. 1999-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $563 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,037/yr (+$86/mo · 184.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$563
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$922
• − Management: −$922
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$5,744
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — White Branch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: White Branch, MO
• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+233.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $164,900 WCAR
• 2021-03-08 Sold (MLS) — WCAR
• 2020-11-25 Listed $49,500 WCAR
• 1999-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $563 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.