4454 Craig Dr · Conley, GA 30294

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1966 0.33 ac lot $104/sqft · 18% below area Est $195k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4454 Craig Drive! A spacious 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath ranch offering over 1,500 square feet of living space in Ellenwood. Major improvements have already been completed, including a newer roof, updated HVAC system, and water heater. Inside, you'll find plenty of room to make it your own with cosmetic updates and personal touches that can instantly add value. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer looking to build equity or an investor searching for your next opportunity, this property delivers incredible potential. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major highways, this is your chance to secure a solid home with room to grow. Don't miss out on this value-packed opportunity!

Key facts

• Updated hvac system
• Newer roof
• Water heater

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED HVAC SYSTEM
• WATER HEATER
• COSMETIC UPDATES
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Two parking spaces; Open parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: One-level home; Resale property
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Chain link fence

Interior

• Kitchen: White cabinets; Dishwasher; Electric oven and electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Other kitchen features
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Bedroom features: Other
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Master bath with tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open concept dining area; Den; No common walls; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 5.6% in Conley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#299 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anderson Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,144 of 1,228 statewide, top 94%, 504 students, 90% FRL); Forest Park Middle School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #412 of 470 statewide, top 88%, 685 students, 90% FRL); Forest Park High School (math 8% / reading 16%, grade F, #344 of 424 statewide, top 81%, 1,765 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.84%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,775
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -15.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2156 Slate Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,629 (+6%)	2mo	$205,000	$126	84
2166 Slate Rd	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,600 (+4%)	9mo	$235,000	$147	81
4310 Rocklane Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,515 (-2%)	1mo	$235,000	$155	77
1975 Slate Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-13%)	14mo	$250,000	$187	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $10,208
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $64,942
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,068/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,365

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $607	-5% $562	+0% $517	+5% $471	+10% $426
Rent	-10% $357	-5% $437	+0% $517	+5% $596	+10% $676
Rate	-1.0pp $597	-0.5pp $557	base $517	+0.5pp $475	+1.0pp $433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4225 Cottage Ln Conley, GA	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	5d	1	0.55mi
4308 Sheppard Dr Conley, GA	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,850	$1.72	44d	1	0.76mi
1678 Bagpipe Pl Conley, GA	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,300	$0.90	44d	1	0.95mi
2340 Brookgate Way Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,024	$1.05	21d	1	1.10mi
2655 Old Toney Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	44d	1	1.10mi
2503 Brookgate Way Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,215	$1.15	21d	1	1.12mi
1540 Greenwillow Dr Conley, GA	4.0	2.0	1564	$1,895	$1.21	25d	1	1.24mi
1793 Cedar Walk Ln Conley, GA	3.0	2.0	2143	$1,950	$0.91	44d	1	1.30mi
2292 Shady Dr Morrow, GA	3.0	2.5	1714	$2,199	$1.28	0d	1	1.35mi
4974 Summersun Dr Morrow, GA	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,375	$1.23	0d	1	1.40mi
2314 Shady Dr Morrow, GA	4.0	2.5	1705	$2,179	$1.28	12d	1	1.40mi
2010 Redwood Trce Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	2036	$2,079	$1.02	23d	1	1.42mi
4197 Grant Forest Cir Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	2208	$2,300	$1.04	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $160,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-01-23
   price $164,900 2144-char remark
10. 2026-01-23
    price $164,900 2097-char remark
11. 2026-01-05
    listed $169,900 New 2097-char remark
12. 2026-01-05
    listed $169,900 Active 2144-char remark
13. 2024-05-03
    soldstatus $155,000
14. 2024-04-26
    status Under Contract
15. 2024-04-26
    status Pending
16. 2024-04-26
    soldstatus $155,000 Sold
17. 2024-04-26
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed
18. 2024-04-20
    listed $165,000 New
19. 2024-04-20
    listed $165,000 Active
20. 2024-02-29
    historical
21. 2024-02-29
    historical
22. 2024-02-19
    status Back On Market
23. 2024-02-19
    status Active
24. 2024-02-15
    status Under Contract
25. 2024-02-15
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2024-01-19
    status Back On Market
27. 2024-01-19
    status Active
28. 2024-01-05
    status Pending
29. 2023-12-28
    status Under Contract
30. 2023-12-28
    historical Active Under Contract
31. 2023-12-18
    price $149,900
32. 2023-12-18
    price $149,900
33. 2023-11-29
    listed $159,900 Active
34. 2023-11-29
    listed $159,900 New
35. 2023-11-28
    soldstatus $110,000
36. 1967-08-22
    soldstatus $15,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,068 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,068 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,068
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $3,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$927
• After-tax cash flow: $5,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clayton County
• NCES district ID: 1301230
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,266
• Composite: 13.41/100
• National rank: #9527
• State rank: #155 of 174 in GA

Livability — Conley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #16248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conley, GA
• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 8,116
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Clayton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 310,777 people
• By 2030: 329,762 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 368,052 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 401,196 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 472,488 · +52.0%
• By 2100: 500,446 · +61.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clayton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+69.2) · D 84.3% · R 15.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 66.4pp · 2024: 69.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+69.2 2020: D+70.9 2016: D+71.9 2012: D+70.1 2008: D+66.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+939.0% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $160,000 FMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listed $160,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $164,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $169,900 GAMLS
• 2024-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-26 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-04-26 Pending — FMLS
• 2024-04-26 Sold (MLS) $155,000 FMLS
• 2024-04-26 Sold (MLS) $155,000 GAMLS
• 2024-04-20 Listed $165,000 FMLS
• 2024-04-20 Listed $165,000 GAMLS
• 2024-02-29 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2024-02-29 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-02-19 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-02-19 Relisted — FMLS
• 2024-02-15 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-02-15 Contingent — FMLS
• 2024-01-19 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-01-19 Relisted — FMLS
• 2024-01-05 Pending — FMLS
• 2023-12-28 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-12-28 Contingent — FMLS
• 2023-12-18 Price Changed $149,900 GAMLS
• 2023-12-18 Price Changed $149,900 FMLS
• 2023-11-29 Listed $159,900 FMLS
• 2023-11-29 Listed $159,900 GAMLS
• 2023-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1967-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $15,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,068 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.