5109 Oak Ct · Dickinson, TX 77539

$306,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1969 10,436 sqft lot Est $330k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready and beautifully updated, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and peace of mind. Located near the bayou for easy access to outdoor recreation and summer fun, the home features a remodeled primary suite, updated bathrooms, and a renovated kitchen. The soothing blue-gray interior creates a calm, inviting atmosphere throughout. Major upgrades include PEX plumbing (2021), new ductwork (2022), A/C replaced in 2018, and energy-efficient windows. The exterior was freshly repainted and recalked in 2026. With great bones, extensive improvements, and nothing left to do but move in, this home is one you won't want to miss!

Key facts

• Pex plumbing
• New ductwork
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED PRIMARY SUITE
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• PEX PLUMBING
• NEW DUCTWORK
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenity: boat ramp

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east
• Construction: Built in 1969; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 15); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (12 x 10, 12 x 10, 14 x 12)
• Flooring: Bamboo flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors; Tub/shower; Ceiling fan(s); Gas and wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $306k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.4% in Dickinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#533 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); John And Shamarion Barber Middle (math 59% / reading 48%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 568 students, 74% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 664 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,346/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 869% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $306,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.59%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $329,866
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5120 E Bayou Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,401 (+3%)	4mo	$290,000	$121	86
5104 E Bayou Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,066 (-11%)	3mo	$255,000	$123	76
4422 W Bayou Maison Cir	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,335 (+0%)	5mo	$331,400	$142	72
4318 Karam Lndg	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,320 (-0%)	5mo	$336,900	$145	66
5307 W Bayou Maison Cir	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,227 (-4%)	5mo	$324,400	$146	65
4427 Leslies Way	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,316 (-0%)	5mo	$352,400	$152	64
4207 W Bayou Maison Cir	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,227 (-4%)	4mo	$298,999	$134	59
5319 Decatur Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,363 (+2%)	1mo	$299,000	$127	58
4411 Karam Lndg	0.65mi	4/4.5	2,316 (-0%)	4mo	$354,900	$153	56
4407 Karam Lndg	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,557 (+10%)	2mo	$360,900	$141	51
4309 Karam Lndg	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,557 (+10%)	4mo	$363,400	$142	48
4219 W Bayou Maison Cir	0.58mi	4/3.0	1,987 (-14%)	4mo	$285,000	$143	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-29,332
• Equity at exit: $45,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-24,495
• Equity at exit: $26,457

Cash invested: $85,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 664
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,605
• Tax from tax record: −$441 /mo · $5,290/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$703
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,751

Max offer price $306,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,500
• Closing costs: $9,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3705 Misty Cove Ct Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,400	$1.49	44d	1	1.04mi
5313 Palm Dr Unit 1546303P Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$5,645	$3.45	17d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $306,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $306,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $306,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $306,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 650-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $306,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,290 · $441/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,600 · $467/mo
• Expected delta: +$310/yr (+$26/mo · 5.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,141
• − Property taxes: −$5,290
• − Insurance: −$1,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,213
• − Management: −$3,213
• − Depreciation: −$8,902
• Taxable income: $869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$209
• After-tax cash flow: $5,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dickinson

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #533
• US rank: #10431

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dickinson, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,375
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+86.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $306,000 HARMLS
• 2002-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-03-06 Listed $164,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,290 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.