244 Bent Creek Cir · Battlement Mesa, CO 81635

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Built 2021

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has a great layout ans is very tastefully done. It has nice sized bedrooms and a fireplace in the living room.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Fenced yard
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• LARGE PRIMARY EN SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.8% in Battlement Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#287 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, employment B; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Grand Valley School District No. 16 In The County Of Garfi (town): math 18% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #72 of 86 in CO (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 171 units permitted in Garfield County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Garfield County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $125k implies a 443% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.67%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Horizon Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,016 (-9%)	1mo	$123,000	$121	77
6 Pinnacle Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+6%)	7mo	$325,000	$274	76
286 E Tamarack Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	10mo	$329,900	$305	69
122 E Tamarack Cir	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+2%)	8mo	$335,000	$293	68
124 W Carson Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+4%)	1mo	$128,000	$109	68
68 E Bonanza Pl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+4%)	10mo	$335,000	$289	67
22 W Bonanza Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	8mo	$285,000	$234	65
152 W Tamarack Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+7%)	14mo	$333,500	$279	63
227 E Tamarack Cir	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,228 (+10%)	2mo	$343,250	$280	62
73 Mahogany Cir	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,013 (-10%)	16mo	$105,000	$104	53
47 E Tamarack Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+13%)	18mo	$325,000	$256	44
340 Tamarisk Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0	980 (-12%)	19mo	$51,000	$52	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $78,631
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.38×
• Total profit: $223,311
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81635

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $209	+0% $165	+5% $122	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $62	-5% $114	+0% $165	+5% $217	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $228	-0.5pp $197	base $165	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $125,000
3. 2026-01-30
   listed $130,000 Active
4. 2013-07-10
   soldstatus $23,000 120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (120 chars)

   This home has a great layout ans is very tastefully done. It has nice sized bedrooms and a fireplace in the living room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,634
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,251
• − Management: −$1,251
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$6
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1
• After-tax cash flow: $1,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grand Valley School District No. 16 In The County Of Garfi
• NCES district ID: 0804380
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,301
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8815
• State rank: #72 of 86 in CO

Livability — Battlement Mesa

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #20600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Battlement Mesa, CO
• Population (ZIP): 7,155

Population outlook (Garfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,756 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 64,952 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 64,937 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 62,413 · +1.1%
• By 2100: 55,730 · -9.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Garfield

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 47.7% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: -0.0pp · 2024: 2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.1 2020: D+2.3 2016: R+7.1 2012: R+4.9 2008: R+0.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.90%
• Current HPI: 434.5219
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+443.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — AGMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $125,000 AGMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $130,000 AGMLS
• 2013-07-10 Sold (MLS) $23,000 AGMLS