7227 Bakersfield Ct · Alvin, TX 77583

$259,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,947 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 314 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,401 sqft lot $134/sqft · 13% below area Est $290k · 10% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home boasts a brick entry which extends down both sides, extended entry, covered patio & a Den Room that can be converted into a 4th bedroom. Entertain guests in the Open Kitchen Area, complete with granite countertops, stainless steel Energy Star appliances & 42-in cabinets. Retreat to the primary bedroom & bathroom with a walk-in closet, extended dual vanities & a shower/tub combo with tile backsplash. Situated off FM-521 with Hwy 288, Hwy 6 & Beltway 8 just minutes away, commuters enjoy the ease of access to Downtown Houston, Pearland, Sugar Land & The Texas Medical Center. Zoned to Fort Bend ISD.

Key facts

• Open kitchen area
• Covered patio
• 42-in cabinets

Tags

• BRICK ENTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• DEN ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• 42-IN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.7% in Alvin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,478 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.97%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,831
• List price: $259,999
• Delta: -10.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7227 Bakersfield Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,898 (-2%)	0mo	$259,999	$137	96
6846 Termino Ln	0.35mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,908 (-2%)	3mo	$274,900	$144	67
7219 Victorville Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,759 (-10%)	3mo	$267,000	$152	63
827 Cloverdale Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,707 (-12%)	1mo	$258,600	$151	62
1230 Mariquita Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,660 (-15%)	2mo	$279,900	$169	61
1103 Curly Angora Ct	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (-8%)	2mo	$285,000	$160	61
7710 Murciana Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,061 (+6%)	3mo	$305,000	$148	55
7802 Murciana Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,061 (+6%)	2mo	$300,000	$146	55
606 Palo Alto Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-9%)	3mo	$258,000	$146	54
6415 Bolinas Ct	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,900 (-2%)	1mo	$329,000	$173	50
6418 Pomona Ct	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,900 (-2%)	2mo	$329,900	$174	50
6410 Bolinas Ct	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,730 (-11%)	3mo	$299,900	$173	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-63,403
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-98,068
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,479 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$681 /mo · $8,177/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,784

Max offer price $217,478

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-167	+0% $-241	+5% $-314	+10% $-388
Rent	-10% $-437	-5% $-339	+0% $-241	+5% $-143	+10% $-45
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-175	base $-241	+0.5pp $-308	+1.0pp $-377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,200	$1.10	45d	1	0.02mi
7711 Sleek Flock Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$2,850	$1.14	26d	1	0.58mi
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,750	$1.02	14d	1	0.72mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	45d	1	0.81mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	20d	1	0.82mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	24d	1	0.92mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,650	$1.02	45d	1	1.15mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	45d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $259,999 Pending 314 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,999 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,999 Active 312 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $259,999 Active 309 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $259,999 Active 308 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $259,999 Active 307 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $259,999 Active 306 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,999 Active 305 DOM
9. 2025-10-27
   price $259,999 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   This home boasts a brick entry which extends down both sides, extended entry, covered patio & a Den Room that can be converted into a 4th bedroom. Entertain guests in the Open Kitchen Area, complete with granite countertops, stainless steel Energy Star appliances & 42-in cabinets. Retreat to the primary bedroom & bathroom with a walk-in closet, extended dual vanities & a shower/tub combo with tile backsplash. Situated off FM-521 with Hwy 288, Hwy 6 & Beltway 8 just minutes away, commuters enjoy the ease of access to Downtown Houston, Pearland, Sugar Land & The Texas Medical Center. Zoned to Fort Bend ISD.

10. 2025-08-28
    price $279,999 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    This home boasts a brick entry which extends down both sides, extended entry, covered patio & a Den Room that can be converted into a 4th bedroom. Entertain guests in the Open Kitchen Area, complete with granite countertops, stainless steel Energy Star appliances & 42-in cabinets. Retreat to the primary bedroom & bathroom with a walk-in closet, extended dual vanities & a shower/tub combo with tile backsplash. Situated off FM-521 with Hwy 288, Hwy 6 & Beltway 8 just minutes away, commuters enjoy the ease of access to Downtown Houston, Pearland, Sugar Land & The Texas Medical Center. Zoned to Fort Bend ISD.

11. 2025-08-25
    price $289,999 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    This home boasts a brick entry which extends down both sides, extended entry, covered patio & a Den Room that can be converted into a 4th bedroom. Entertain guests in the Open Kitchen Area, complete with granite countertops, stainless steel Energy Star appliances & 42-in cabinets. Retreat to the primary bedroom & bathroom with a walk-in closet, extended dual vanities & a shower/tub combo with tile backsplash. Situated off FM-521 with Hwy 288, Hwy 6 & Beltway 8 just minutes away, commuters enjoy the ease of access to Downtown Houston, Pearland, Sugar Land & The Texas Medical Center. Zoned to Fort Bend ISD.

12. 2025-07-31
    listed $309,999 Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    This home boasts a brick entry which extends down both sides, extended entry, covered patio & a Den Room that can be converted into a 4th bedroom. Entertain guests in the Open Kitchen Area, complete with granite countertops, stainless steel Energy Star appliances & 42-in cabinets. Retreat to the primary bedroom & bathroom with a walk-in closet, extended dual vanities & a shower/tub combo with tile backsplash. Situated off FM-521 with Hwy 288, Hwy 6 & Beltway 8 just minutes away, commuters enjoy the ease of access to Downtown Houston, Pearland, Sugar Land & The Texas Medical Center. Zoned to Fort Bend ISD.

13. 2025-07-18
    soldstatus
14. 2023-08-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,177 · $681/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,177 · $681/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$8,177
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,380
• − Management: −$2,380
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$7,167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,720
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Alvin, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, minimal repairs needed, and several high-ROI updates that can increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can be done inexpensively
• Resale Replace countertops — Granite countertops are durable but can be replaced for a significant value increase
• Resale Install new flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can be done inexpensively ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Granite countertops are durable but can be replaced for a significant value increase ↑
• Resale Install new flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #13148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 51,892
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $259,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $279,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $289,999 HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $309,999 HARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+152.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,177 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.