504 Kadlubeck Way · Mystic Island, NJ 08087

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1971 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HIGHEST & BEST DUE BY FRIDAY MAY 1,2026 BY 12 PM- CASH & REHAB LOANS ONLY- Home has structural damage and mold. Home is in need of a FULL renovation . Buyer to get Transfer of title co. sold AS IS AS SEEN- 3 bedrooms 1.5baths on a large lot

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Public sewer

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (total 1.5 bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $835 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 2.6% in Mystic Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#455 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Pinelands Regional School District (rural): math 14% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #344 of 472 in NJ (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.87%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $342,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 Kadlubeck Way	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,368 (0%)	0mo	$172,500	$126	98
106 Polonia Way	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+5%)	2mo	$450,000	$314	78
524 Kadlubeck Way	0.12mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,506 (+10%)	4mo	$283,000	$188	68
313 Concord Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,372 (+0%)	0mo	$315,000	$230	67
10 W Anchor Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,256 (-8%)	2mo	$411,250	$327	64
227 Valley Forge Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (-2%)	1mo	$300,000	$223	62
22 S Dayton	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,400 (+2%)	3mo	$527,000	$376	62
113 E Delaware Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+12%)	0mo	$765,000	$501	52
105 Lexington Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-8%)	5mo	$315,000	$250	52
223 Lantern Pl	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-8%)	2mo	$285,000	$226	47
116 Lantern Pl	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-11%)	1mo	$275,000	$225	42
108 Lantern Pl	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,222 (-11%)	4mo	$340,000	$278	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $29,033
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $94,354
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08087

• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,230/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $835

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,521

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $920	-5% $878	+0% $835	+5% $793	+10% $750
Rent	-10% $632	-5% $733	+0% $835	+5% $937	+10% $1,039
Rate	-1.0pp $911	-0.5pp $873	base $835	+0.5pp $796	+1.0pp $757

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
211 Harbourtown Blvd Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	2.0	1.5	1320	$2,300	$1.74	2d	1	0.50mi
32 Pin Oak Ln Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	3.0	1.5	1000	$2,550	$2.55	2d	1	0.64mi
128 E Dory Dr Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,800	$2.45	2d	1	0.67mi
28 S Los Angeles Dr Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	3.0	1.0	1244	$2,300	$1.85	2d	1	0.74mi
12 Timberline Dr Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	2.0	1.5	943	$2,250	$2.39	24d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,230 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,230 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$4,230
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,475
• − Management: −$2,475
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $8,244
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,979
• After-tax cash flow: $8,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinelands Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3413000
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,396
• Composite: 26.97/100
• National rank: #7075
• State rank: #344 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Mystic Island

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #17110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment C- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mystic Island, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 25,342
• Household income: $91,677
• Rent vs Own: 16.6% rent · 83.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 519.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.86%
• Current HPI: 340.4378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $150,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,230 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.