1664 Ponderosa Ln Lot 88 · Lake of the Woods, AZ 85929

$32,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Manufactured · 28 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Retreat to the cool, whispering pines of Lakeside and discover this charming, single-wide home in a welcoming 55+ community--ideal for a relaxing summer escape or comfortable year-round living. Nestled in a peaceful setting, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy, fresh mountain air, and a slower pace of life, just minutes from shopping, the library, medical services, the casino, and all the amenities of Pinetop-Lakeside. Step inside to a warm and inviting interior with a smart, efficient layout designed for easy living. Relax on your covered deck--perfect for sipping morning coffee, enjoying cool mountain evenings, or entertaining friends beneath the trees.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Peaceful setting
• Built 1970

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• PEACEFUL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit/Space number 88; Directions: E on White Mountain Blvd, right on Woodland Road, right into Ponderosa Lane. Go to the end, turn right onto Shoreline Drive. At the end of Shoreline Drive, veer right and then left. Home is the second on the right. SPACE # 88
• Financial info: Lot is on leased land with a monthly lease payment
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a 55+ community (Ponderosa RV Resort)

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Metered water (Navopache); Sewer available; Propane tank leased; Power available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home (single wide)
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Stemwall foundation; Flat roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered deck; Property partly fenced; Other building on lot; Tall pines and trees on the lot; Private adjoining property; Road maintenance by city

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Pantry; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Bottled gas heating; Evaporative cooling; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Master bedroom located downstairs; No fireplace; Carpet and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.2% vs local median 2.4% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#206 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 257 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $225 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $975 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,012 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 96.20%
• DSCR: 5.28
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.53×
• Total profit: $41,215
• Equity at exit: $4,846

10-year hold

• IRR: 99.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.53×
• Total profit: $95,793
• Equity at exit: $2,810

Cash invested: $9,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85929

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 257
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$170
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$41 /mo · $488/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $284

Max offer price $32,500

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,125
• Closing costs: $975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $32,500 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,500 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,500 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,500 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,500 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,500 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $32,500 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,500 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,500 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,500 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-06
    days on market $32,500 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $32,500 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,500 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $32,500 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,500 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,500 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $32,500 Active
18. 2025-09-27
    price $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,821
• − Property taxes: −$488
• − Insurance: −$162
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$945
• Taxable income: $8,758
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,102
• After-tax cash flow: $6,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-wide manufactured home is in fair condition with some cosmetic repairs needed, such as painting the cabinets and exterior siding. It has a good foundation and structure, and the interior walls and paint appear to be in good condition. The home is located in a peaceful setting with a covered deck and a 55+ community, making it an ideal summer escape or year-round living option.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets show some wear and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint.
• Minor Bathroom sink — The sink appears to be in good condition, but a fresh coat of paint could improve its appearance.
• Minor Exterior paint — The exterior siding appears to be in good condition, but the paint is faded and could benefit from a fresh coat.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the kitchen cabinets and exterior siding — Painting the cabinets and exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and interior appearance, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · The cabinets show some wear and could benefit from a fresh coat of paint.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom sink · The sink appears to be in good condition, but a fresh coat of paint could improve its appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior paint · The exterior siding appears to be in good condition, but the paint is faded and could benefit from a fresh coat.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the kitchen cabinets and exterior siding — Painting the cabinets and exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and interior appearance, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #20890

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake of the Woods, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 7,280

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Native American 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.03%
• Current HPI: 383.9587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+8.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $32,500 WMMLS
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $29,900 WMMLS