10512 Granada Dr · Waco, TX 76708

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2009 8,625 sqft lot $158/sqft · 18% below area Est $274k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, located in the highly sought-after China Spring ISD, is the perfect opportunity for first-time homebuyers ready to step into homeownership. Nestled in a family-friendly neighborhood, you’ll love the sense of community while still enjoying the privacy of your own fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, kids, or weekend get-togethers. Inside, the functional layout makes everyday living easy, whether you're hosting friends or just enjoying a quiet night at home. The 2-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, giving you the space you need as you grow. For buyers tired of renting, this home offers a chance to start building equity in a location known for strong demand and long-term value. It’s also a solid option for investors looking for a property in a high-demand rental area. Homes in this price point and school district don’t last long so schedule your showing today and take the first step toward owning your own home.

Key facts

• 8,625 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2009

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,098 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.34%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,908
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -17.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10421 Arabella Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+6%)	1mo	$265,000	$175	85
10321 Walley Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+6%)	1mo	$259,900	$172	74
10148 Barton Creek Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-3%)	4mo	$242,000	$176	66
10204 Driskill Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,615 (+13%)	2mo	$278,000	$172	64
10204 Marigold Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-5%)	0mo	$239,500	$177	62
10808 Aurora Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+10%)	0mo	$257,000	$164	62
10124 Colony Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,501 (+5%)	0mo	$249,900	$166	55
10400 Marigold Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+10%)	3mo	$260,000	$165	55
10514 Mesa Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,626 (+14%)	2mo	$299,000	$184	47
4133 Knoll Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+12%)	4mo	$218,000	$136	46
4216 Knoll Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (-10%)	4mo	$150,000	$117	44
10600 Lilry Rd	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (+14%)	3mo	$289,000	$178	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-62,526
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-100,596
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,837/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,122

Max offer price $166,098

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-206	-5% $-269	+0% $-333	+5% $-397	+10% $-460
Rent	-10% $-467	-5% $-400	+0% $-333	+5% $-266	+10% $-199
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-276	base $-333	+0.5pp $-391	+1.0pp $-450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9900 China Spring Rd Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,405	$1.47	14d	1	0.46mi
9836 Salem Way Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	14d	1	0.70mi
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	44d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 993-char remark

   Show marketing remark (993 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, located in the highly sought-after China Spring ISD, is the perfect opportunity for first-time homebuyers ready to step into homeownership. Nestled in a family-friendly neighborhood, you’ll love the sense of community while still enjoying the privacy of your own fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, kids, or weekend get-togethers. Inside, the functional layout makes everyday living easy, whether you're hosting friends or just enjoying a quiet night at home. The 2-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, giving you the space you need as you grow. For buyers tired of renting, this home offers a chance to start building equity in a location known for strong demand and long-term value. It’s also a solid option for investors looking for a property in a high-demand rental area. Homes in this price point and school district don’t last long so schedule your showing today and take the first step toward owning your own home.

2. 2026-04-23
   status Active 993-char remark

   Show marketing remark (993 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, located in the highly sought-after China Spring ISD, is the perfect opportunity for first-time homebuyers ready to step into homeownership. Nestled in a family-friendly neighborhood, you’ll love the sense of community while still enjoying the privacy of your own fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, kids, or weekend get-togethers. Inside, the functional layout makes everyday living easy, whether you're hosting friends or just enjoying a quiet night at home. The 2-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, giving you the space you need as you grow. For buyers tired of renting, this home offers a chance to start building equity in a location known for strong demand and long-term value. It’s also a solid option for investors looking for a property in a high-demand rental area. Homes in this price point and school district don’t last long so schedule your showing today and take the first step toward owning your own home.

3. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 993-char remark

   Show marketing remark (993 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, located in the highly sought-after China Spring ISD, is the perfect opportunity for first-time homebuyers ready to step into homeownership. Nestled in a family-friendly neighborhood, you’ll love the sense of community while still enjoying the privacy of your own fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, kids, or weekend get-togethers. Inside, the functional layout makes everyday living easy, whether you're hosting friends or just enjoying a quiet night at home. The 2-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, giving you the space you need as you grow. For buyers tired of renting, this home offers a chance to start building equity in a location known for strong demand and long-term value. It’s also a solid option for investors looking for a property in a high-demand rental area. Homes in this price point and school district don’t last long so schedule your showing today and take the first step toward owning your own home.

4. 2026-04-20
   listed $224,900 Active 993-char remark

   Show marketing remark (993 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, located in the highly sought-after China Spring ISD, is the perfect opportunity for first-time homebuyers ready to step into homeownership. Nestled in a family-friendly neighborhood, you’ll love the sense of community while still enjoying the privacy of your own fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, kids, or weekend get-togethers. Inside, the functional layout makes everyday living easy, whether you're hosting friends or just enjoying a quiet night at home. The 2-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, giving you the space you need as you grow. For buyers tired of renting, this home offers a chance to start building equity in a location known for strong demand and long-term value. It’s also a solid option for investors looking for a property in a high-demand rental area. Homes in this price point and school district don’t last long so schedule your showing today and take the first step toward owning your own home.

5. 2018-08-30
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,837 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,837 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$4,837
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$7,962
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,911
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $224,900 NTREIS
• 2018-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,837 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.