11659 Dunes Way Dr N · Jacksonville, FL 32225

$157,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Townhouse public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $217k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable opportunity in a great Jacksonville location! This townhome has been well maintained and offers solid bones, with the potential to make it your own. It only needs light cosmetic updates to truly shine. Located in a desirable area with no HOA, this property is just a short drive to Jacksonville Beach, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or looking for a low-maintenance property in a convenient location, this home offers excellent value and upside potential.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• No hoa
• Built 1986

Tags

• GREAT JACKSONVILLE LOCATION
• NO HOA
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two stories; Attached property; Residential single-family use
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $157k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $157k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $157k implies a 190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,290 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.52%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,776
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11651 Dunes Way Dr N	0.01mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,344 (-2%)	5mo	$198,000	$147	87
2104 Dunes Way Dr W	0.16mi	2/2.5	1,372 (0%)	5mo	$160,000	$117	86
12763 Ashbrook Cir W	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,345 (-2%)	3mo	$220,000	$164	81
11623 McCormick Rd	0.05mi	2/2.5	1,282 (-7%)	6mo	$218,000	$170	80
11870 Ashbrook Cir N	0.25mi	2/2.5	1,258 (-8%)	1mo	$185,000	$147	72
11322 Derringer Cir S	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,342 (-2%)	3mo	$235,000	$175	69
11671 Tanager Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,404 (+2%)	2mo	$142,500	$101	56
3015 Cobblewood Ln E	0.67mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,322 (-4%)	5mo	$225,000	$170	51
11360 White Bay Ln	0.51mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,224 (-11%)	2mo	$135,000	$110	50
11712 Ft Caroline Lakes Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,467 (+7%)	5mo	$232,000	$158	45
11371 Blue Teal Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,453 (+6%)	5mo	$255,000	$175	43
2190 Monument Rd #103	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,573 (+15%)	6mo	$225,000	$143	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-10,875
• Equity at exit: $23,409

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,402
• Equity at exit: $13,574

Cash invested: $43,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32225

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,834 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,979/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $157,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,250
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3054 Cobblewood Ln W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1480	$1,950	$1.32	21d	1	0.47mi
12021 McCormick Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1214	$1,570	$1.29	2d	4	0.47mi
3333 Monument Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,369	$1.59	1d	18	0.54mi
11406 Bedford Oaks Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1122	$1,500	$1.34	4d	1	0.55mi
11728 Tanager Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1464	$1,895	$1.29	1d	1	0.58mi
12036 Arbor Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,795	$1.46	23d	1	0.63mi
11671 Tanager Dr Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,900	$1.35	13d	1	0.67mi
11172 Tanager Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,900	$1.35	23d	1	0.79mi
11548 Willet Ct N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,800	$1.10	16d	1	0.88mi
3363 Hampstead Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,350	$1.52	17d	1	0.89mi
12423 Forest Lake Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1597	$2,375	$1.49	3d	1	1.40mi
12423 Forest Lake Cir E Unit 1 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,375	$1.49	17d	1	1.40mi
12423 Forest Lake Cir N #1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,275	$1.42	2d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $157,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $157,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $157,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $157,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $157,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-05-11
   price $157,000
7. 2026-04-23
   listed $167,000 Active
8. 1986-12-01
   soldstatus $54,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,979 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,979 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$2,979
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,761
• − Management: −$1,761
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable income: $1,365
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$328
• After-tax cash flow: $3,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,905
• Household income: $90,559
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1670.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 14% Black 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.73%
• Current HPI: 307.1292
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.45%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+190.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $157,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $167,000 realMLS
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,979 · +374.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.