414 Crocker Ave S · Thief River Falls, MN 56701

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1940 6,359 sqft lot $48/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,359 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One story
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Lot roughly 0.146 acres with irregular dimensions (approx. 49.02 x 125.83 x 48.35 x 127.14)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Block foundation in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 25.9% vs local median 5.5% in Thief River Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#219 in MN, #4,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Thief River Falls School District (town): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #201 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Challenger Elementary (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D-, #492 of 857 statewide, top 61%, 783 students, 41% FRL); Franklin Middle (math 34% / reading 45%, grade F, #150 of 258 statewide, top 59%, 421 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pennington County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.91%
• DSCR: 4.11
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,465
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -71.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $35,067
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.54×
• Total profit: $84,237
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56701

• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,772/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $473

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $673	-5% $662	+0% $651	+5% $640	+10% $628
Rent	-10% $548	-5% $600	+0% $651	+5% $702	+10% $753
Rate	-1.0pp $671	-0.5pp $661	base $651	+0.5pp $641	+1.0pp $630

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
231 Tindolph Ave N Thief River Falls, MN	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,375	$1.38	45d	1	0.32mi
100 Barnick Rd Thief River Falls, MN	1.0	1.0	724	$1,065	$1.47	45d	2	0.98mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $39,900 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $40,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    price $40,000
15. 2026-02-26
    price $58,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,772 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,772 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,772
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,703
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,849
• After-tax cash flow: $5,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thief River Falls School District
• NCES district ID: 2738850
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,239
• Composite: 36.88/100
• National rank: #4547
• State rank: #201 of 301 in MN

Livability — Thief River Falls

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #4606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thief River Falls, MN
• City population: 12,814
• Population (ZIP): 12,814

Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,800 people
• By 2030: 15,030 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 15,402 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 15,601 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 15,659 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 14,231 · -3.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 34% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pennington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.1% · R 64.6% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+27.0 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+4.3 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.53%
• Current HPI: 136.4729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-49.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $39,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-27 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $40,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $58,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Listed $78,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,772 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.