1222 Schley St · Aberdeen, WA 98520

$194,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1924 0.28 ac lot $166/sqft · 28% below area Est $269k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath rambler offering 1,168 sq ft of living space on a generous . 275-acre (approx. 12,000 sq ft) lot. Nice living room and a large kitchen plus an oversized pantry/laundry room that offers flexible use as an office. Primary bedroom includes an ensuite bath. The spacious yard provides a blank slate for outdoor living, gardening, or future possibilities, with ample parking including room for RV parking and potential for a garage or shop. Conveniently located near the river and walking trail, minutes to downtown, approximately 20 miles to the ocean beaches, and outside the hazardous flood zone.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Rv parking
• Walking trail

Tags

• OVERSIZED PANTRY
• FLEXIBLE USE OFFICE
• SPACIOUS YARD
• AMPLE PARKING
• RV PARKING
• WALKING TRAIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.1% in Aberdeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#73 in WA, #1,320 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D-, employment F.
• Aberdeen School District (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #222 of 291 in WA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stevens Elementary School (345 students, 89% FRL); Miller Junior High (718 students, 68% FRL); J M Weatherwax High School (916 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,228 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,182
• List price: $194,000
• Delta: -27.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1010 W Perry St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+3%)	4mo	$200,000	$167	79
400 S Exchange	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,224 (+5%)	8mo	$321,500	$263	74
1111 W Perry St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-14%)	15mo	$282,000	$280	55
100 N Lewis St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,272 (+9%)	4mo	$350,000	$275	51
408 W King St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-4%)	13mo	$200,000	$179	45
1005 Calhoun Rd	0.43mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,092 (-6%)	20mo	$259,900	$238	45
1417 Ralph Rd	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-14%)	15mo	$200,000	$198	45
708 Water St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-14%)	23mo	$250,000	$248	44
716 Water St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-14%)	23mo	$250,000	$248	43
1000 W Perry	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,028 (-12%)	21mo	$175,000	$170	43
722 Waters St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-14%)	23mo	$220,000	$218	43
1021 W Stockwell St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,004 (-14%)	21mo	$237,000	$236	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-35,577
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-30,505
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98520

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,837/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,584

Max offer price $177,022

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-41	+0% $-96	+5% $-151	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-212	-5% $-154	+0% $-96	+5% $-38	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-47	base $-96	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1200 W Huntley St Unit 3 Aberdeen, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	45d	1	0.48mi
1731 S Boone St Unit 303 Aberdeen, WA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	45d	1	0.80mi
109 S Park St Apt 1 Aberdeen, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,375	$1.72	46d	1	0.81mi
109 S Park St Apt 2 Aberdeen, WA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	45d	1	0.81mi
100 W Curtis St Aberdeen, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	45d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $194,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $194,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    status $194,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-04-16
    price $209,900
14. 2026-04-02
    status Active
15. 2026-03-26
    status Pending
16. 2026-03-21
    price $224,000
17. 2026-02-18
    price $234,900
18. 2026-01-16
    listed $249,900 Active
19. 2023-03-22
    soldstatus $240,000 Closed
20. 2023-02-20
    status Pending
21. 2023-01-18
    listed $245,000 Active
22. 2021-03-31
    soldstatus $99,000 Sold
23. 2021-03-04
    status Pending
24. 2021-02-19
    listed $99,000 Active
25. 1999-12-08
    soldstatus $25,000
26. 1998-10-16
    soldstatus $40,951

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,837 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$64/yr (+$5/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥77°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$1,837
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,404
• − Management: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$4,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,099
• After-tax cash flow: $-54/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aberdeen School District
• NCES district ID: 5300030
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,896
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #9477
• State rank: #222 of 291 in WA

Livability — Aberdeen

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #1320

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aberdeen, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 24,888
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,888
• Household income: $58,153
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 635.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.75%
• Current HPI: 207.7393
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+412.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $209,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $224,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $234,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $249,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-22 Sold (MLS) $240,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-18 Listed $245,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-31 Sold (MLS) $99,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-19 Listed $99,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1998-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $40,951 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,837 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.