6126 Tosha Dr · Burlington, KY 41005

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 993 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1985 0.29 ac lot Est $265k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful tri level home. New appliances, flooring, carpet and paint. Nice size back yard, perfect for entertaining. Extended driveway for extra parking. Welcome home.

Key facts

• Marble countertops
• Full brick exterior
• Tri-level home

Tags

• TRI-LEVEL HOME
• MARBLE COUNTERTOPS
• SS APPLIANCES
• FULL BRICK EXTERIOR
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY
• LEVEL FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage faces front; Garage door opener; Oversized garage; Driveway parking; Off-street parking; On-street parking; 1 garage space
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Tri-level; Built in 1985
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Composition / shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain link fencing; Outbuilding / shed(s); Cleared, level lot; Paved road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Marble counters; Stainless steel appliances; Electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (14 x 11); Bedroom 2 (13 x 9); Bedroom 3 (10 x 9)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath (8 x 5); Bathroom 2 (6 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Storage space; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Bookcases; Ceiling fans; Multi-panel doors; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Laundry on lower level; Utility room (13 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Burlington — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#83 in KY, #2,792 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burlington Elementary School (math 44% / reading 49%, grade D-, #133 of 676 statewide, top 20%, 692 students, 46% FRL); Camp Ernst Middle School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 723 students, 48% FRL); Randall K. Cooper High School (math 46% / reading 50%, grade D, #17 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,462 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $202,368 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.99%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,131
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3099 Allens Fork Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	970 (-2%)	17mo	$185,000	$191	76
6267 Johnstone Ct	0.37mi	3/1.5	950 (-4%)	0mo	$210,000	$221	74
6222 Rockdale Ct	0.32mi	3/1.0	988 (-0%)	12mo	$238,000	$241	71
2982 George Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5	988 (-0%)	3mo	$268,000	$271	65
6230 Johnstone Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	936 (-6%)	14mo	$250,100	$267	62
6259 Johnstone Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	898 (-10%)	2mo	$245,000	$273	61
6065 Tosha Dr	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,120 (+13%)	8mo	$340,000	$304	59
6238 Johnstone Ct	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	898 (-10%)	9mo	$240,000	$267	54
3052 Featherstone Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	936 (-6%)	18mo	$268,000	$286	53
5945 Noel Creek Ln	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,121 (+13%)	8mo	$292,000	$260	51
6290 Tessie Cir	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,075 (+8%)	2mo	$225,000	$209	50
5919 N Jefferson St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,024 (+3%)	14mo	$215,000	$210	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-56,813
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-65,349
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41005

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,805/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $241,123

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-114	+0% $-192	+5% $-270	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-352	-5% $-272	+0% $-192	+5% $-112	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-122	base $-192	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 675-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $275,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,805
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,725
• After-tax cash flow: $-577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #2792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, KY
• County: Boone County · 99,563 people
• City population: 25,718
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 25,718
• Household income: $112,083
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 399.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.14%
• Current HPI: 220.1076
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-06-11 Listed $275,000 NKMLS
• 2022-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $249,900 Public Records
• 2022-09-09 Sold (MLS) $249,900 NKMLS
• 2022-08-08 Pending — NKMLS
• 2022-08-04 Listed $249,900 NKMLS
• 2022-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-04 Sold (MLS) $143,000 NKMLS
• 2022-03-21 Listed $143,000 NKMLS
• 2022-03-21 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2001-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $108,900 Public Records
• 2001-06-29 Sold (MLS) $108,900 NKMLS
• 2001-01-30 Listed $108,900 NKMLS
• 1993-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 1990-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $54,600 Public Records
• 1989-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,805 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.