4410 N Parrot Ln · Picture Rocks, AZ 85653

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1998 5.00 ac lot Est $306k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with amazing views! Discover a bright interior with vaulted ceilings, beautiful hard wood and laminate floors, and a soothing palette. Get cozy in the family room with a wood-burning fireplace. The new charming chef's kitchen boasts quartz counters, mosaic backsplash, track lighting, SS appliances including an induction top stove, and a butcher block topped island with breakfast bar. The primary bedroom boasts French doors, a private upscale ensuite, and a sizable walk-in closet. Relax on the back deck with amazing desert and mountain views! Don't miss this opportunity, call today!

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Wide open space
• Scenic rural setting

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• WIDE OPEN SPACE
• FLEXIBILITY FOR HORSES
• RV PARKING
• SCENIC RURAL SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Frame and siding construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Chain link and wire fencing; Corner lot with east/west exposure; Dirt road access (owner maintenance)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas range
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Laminate flooring; Engineered wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace in the family room; Fireplace (1 total)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.7% in Picture Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 412 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,226 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.50%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,432
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4170 N Anway Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	12mo	$288,000	$171	61
4726 N Parrot Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-5%)	20mo	$130,000	$76	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-22,919
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $5,167
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,900

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $250,000 Active
17. 2023-08-13
    historical
18. 2023-05-24
    price $294,500
19. 2023-05-08
    listed $296,000 Active
20. 2021-11-19
    soldstatus $260,000 Closed 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Welcome to this remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with amazing views! Discover a bright interior with vaulted ceilings, beautiful hard wood and laminate floors, and a soothing palette. Get cozy in the family room with a wood-burning fireplace. The new charming chef's kitchen boasts quartz counters, mosaic backsplash, track lighting, SS appliances including an induction top stove, and a butcher block topped island with breakfast bar. The primary bedroom boasts French doors, a private upscale ensuite, and a sizable walk-in closet. Relax on the back deck with amazing desert and mountain views! Don't miss this opportunity, call today!

21. 2021-11-19
    soldstatus $260,000

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Welcome to this remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with amazing views! Discover a bright interior with vaulted ceilings, beautiful hard wood and laminate floors, and a soothing palette. Get cozy in the family room with a wood-burning fireplace. The new charming chef's kitchen boasts quartz counters, mosaic backsplash, track lighting, SS appliances including an induction top stove, and a butcher block topped island with breakfast bar. The primary bedroom boasts French doors, a private upscale ensuite, and a sizable walk-in closet. Relax on the back deck with amazing desert and mountain views! Don't miss this opportunity, call today!

22. 2021-09-11
    historical Active Contingent 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Welcome to this remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with amazing views! Discover a bright interior with vaulted ceilings, beautiful hard wood and laminate floors, and a soothing palette. Get cozy in the family room with a wood-burning fireplace. The new charming chef's kitchen boasts quartz counters, mosaic backsplash, track lighting, SS appliances including an induction top stove, and a butcher block topped island with breakfast bar. The primary bedroom boasts French doors, a private upscale ensuite, and a sizable walk-in closet. Relax on the back deck with amazing desert and mountain views! Don't miss this opportunity, call today!

23. 2021-08-26
    listed $260,000 Active 641-char remark

    Show marketing remark (641 chars)

    Welcome to this remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with amazing views! Discover a bright interior with vaulted ceilings, beautiful hard wood and laminate floors, and a soothing palette. Get cozy in the family room with a wood-burning fireplace. The new charming chef's kitchen boasts quartz counters, mosaic backsplash, track lighting, SS appliances including an induction top stove, and a butcher block topped island with breakfast bar. The primary bedroom boasts French doors, a private upscale ensuite, and a sizable walk-in closet. Relax on the back deck with amazing desert and mountain views! Don't miss this opportunity, call today!

24. 2017-08-18
    soldstatus $76,000
25. 2004-03-26
    soldstatus $51,000
26. 2003-09-02
    historical
27. 2003-07-03
    listed $119,000
28. 1982-11-01
    soldstatus $9,775

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,650 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$622/yr (+$52/mo · 60.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,053
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$253
• After-tax cash flow: $3,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2457.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $250,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-08-13 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2023-05-24 Price Changed $294,500 MLSSAZ
• 2023-05-08 Listed $296,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-19 Sold (MLS) $260,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-09-11 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2021-08-26 Listed $260,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-02 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2003-07-03 Listed $119,000 MLSSAZ
• 1982-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,775 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,028 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.