12530 Royal Rd #46 · Winter Gardens, CA 92021

$204,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Manufactured · 136 Days on market

Built 2024 Est $203k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2024 Silvercrest home offering approx. 1,092 sq. ft. of bright, open living with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. This well-appointed residence features new kitchen appliances, in-home washer/dryer connections, two-car parking, and professionally maintained landscaping. Enjoy community amenities including a swimming pool, laundry room, clubhouse and professional on-site management. Located in a quiet residential neighborhood close to restaurants, shopping and local conveniences — ideal for comfortable SoCal living.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community amenities
• Laundry room

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOL
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• CLUBHOUSE
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Knolls' Mobile Estates; Manager approval required; Located at top of the hill per directions
• HOA & community: Land lease community - land lease $1,750

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Knolls' Mobile Estates
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Front entry; Mobile home remains on lot
• Construction: Mobile home approximately 13 ft by 42 ft; One story; Year built listed by builder
• Exterior features: Community pool; Yard; Street lighting

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Front entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $994 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.7% in Winter Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#515 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: El Capitan High (math 20% / reading 54%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,825 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 17% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,051/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,395 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.78%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,112
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12970 Highway 8 Business #35	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-5%)	16mo	$125,000	$120	57
13162 Highway 8 Business SPC 4	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,147 (+5%)	8mo	$213,000	$186	57
12970 Highway 8 Business #104	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,190 (+9%)	13mo	$150,000	$126	56
13162 Highway Business 8 #198	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-5%)	12mo	$230,000	$221	53
12044 Royal Rd #63	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-8%)	5mo	$257,321	$257	52
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd #17	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	14mo	$275,000	$220	49
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd Spc 45	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	14mo	$183,000	$147	47
12044 Royal Rd #28	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+3%)	22mo	$180,000	$160	46
13162 Highway 8 Business Spc 94	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	20mo	$230,000	$205	45
12250 Vista Del Cajon Rd #37	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	24mo	$315,000	$252	39
13162 Highway 8 Business #115	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (-7%)	20mo	$130,500	$128	38
13162 Highway 8 Business #52	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	22mo	$205,000	$164	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $21,188
• Equity at exit: $30,565

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $65,591
• Equity at exit: $17,724

Cash invested: $57,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $994

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $204,995

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,249
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2000 E Main St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5–2.5	1165	$3,300	$2.83	2d	1	0.46mi
12171 Winter Gardens Dr Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	862	$2,500	$2.90	2d	1	0.56mi
8424 Pueblo Rd Unit 8424 Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	2d	1	0.67mi
8031 Winter Gardens Blvd El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1124	$2,995	$2.66	2d	1	0.70mi
8410 Los Coches Rd El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,239	$2.49	2d	1	0.98mi
8809 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	4.0	2.0	1350	$3,800	$2.81	2d	1	1.10mi
9092 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$4,000	$3.08	2d	1	1.15mi
9094 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$4,000	$3.33	2d	1	1.15mi
1365 Broadway El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,478	$3.48	2d	1	1.40mi
1221 Oro St El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$2,575	$2.52	2d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,995 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,995 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,995 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $204,995 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,999 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,999 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,999 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,999 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $204,999 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $204,999 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $204,999 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,999 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,999 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,999 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $204,999
16. 2026-04-10
    price $214,999
17. 2026-03-23
    price $221,990
18. 2026-03-02
    price $229,990
19. 2026-02-02
    listed $229,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,929
• − Management: −$2,929
• − Depreciation: −$5,963
• Taxable income: $9,212
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,211
• After-tax cash flow: $9,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winter Gardens

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #17448

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Gardens, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $204,999 CRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $214,999 CRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $221,990 CRMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $229,990 CRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $229,995 CRMLS