5232 95th St · Lubbock, TX 79424

$194,996

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1980 7,571 sqft lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the established Preston Smith neighborhood, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and quiet suburban charm. Freshly updated from Top to Bottom!!! New Roof! New Paint Inside and Out! New Vinyl Plank Flooring throughout! New Quartz Countertops in kitchen & baths! New Ceiling Fans & Light Fixtures throughout! New Water Heater! New Stainless Steel Appliances! Security System! 2 Car Attached Garage! Gas Fireplace! Spacious Fenced Yard! Move In Ready!!!

Key facts

• New ceiling fans
• New paint
• New light fixtures

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW PAINT
• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW CEILING FANS
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-352/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smith El (math 57% / reading 60%, grade B-, #467 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 561 students, 48% FRL); Irons Middle (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 815 students, 71% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 712 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,233 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,846
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-33,431
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79424

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,434/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $189,814

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $26	+0% $-29	+5% $-85	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-97	+0% $-29	+5% $39	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $20	base $-29	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,749
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5216 94th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,900	$1.22	22d	1	0.12mi
9701 Abbeville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$1,750	$0.96	22d	1	0.14mi
5513 95th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,575	$0.88	22d	1	0.37mi
5545 93rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,450	$1.06	45d	1	0.48mi
5560 93rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,395	$1.02	22d	1	0.53mi
9603 Elmwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	894	$975	$1.09	45d	1	0.61mi
9609 Elmwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	884	$1,050	$1.19	22d	1	0.62mi
10502 Beaufort Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,399	$1.36	45d	1	0.76mi
10506 Beaufort Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,399	$1.36	45d	1	0.78mi
5706 87th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,550	$1.00	15d	1	0.78mi
5731 90th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,650	$1.10	22d	1	0.80mi
5507 108th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,550	$0.98	22d	1	0.92mi
7911 Albany Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1441	$1,350	$0.94	15d	1	0.92mi
7911 Albany Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,350	$0.94	22d	1	0.92mi
5102 80th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	870	$1,098	$1.26	45d	1	1.04mi
9806 Genoa Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,050	$1.16	45d	1	1.05mi
5534 111th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,800	$1.27	15d	1	1.10mi
5240 114th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$1,384	$1.46	15d	7	1.12mi
8310 Raleigh Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,300	$0.92	15d	1	1.18mi
4424 105th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1452	$1,575	$1.08	15d	1	1.22mi
4423 106th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	1737	$1,650	$0.95	15d	1	1.25mi
4416 105th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1873	$2,200	$1.17	15d	1	1.26mi
10509 Quinton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1840	$1,750	$0.95	22d	1	1.32mi
5415 73rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,849	$1.07	22d	1	1.35mi
4804 76th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,350	$1.01	45d	1	1.40mi
4822 73rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,500	$0.98	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-01
   price $194,996 503-char remark

   Show marketing remark (503 chars)

   Nestled in the established Preston Smith neighborhood, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and quiet suburban charm. Freshly updated from Top to Bottom!!! New Roof! New Paint Inside and Out! New Vinyl Plank Flooring throughout! New Quartz Countertops in kitchen & baths! New Ceiling Fans & Light Fixtures throughout! New Water Heater! New Stainless Steel Appliances! Security System! 2 Car Attached Garage! Gas Fireplace! Spacious Fenced Yard! Move In Ready!!!

2. 2026-03-30
   price $199,900 503-char remark

   Show marketing remark (503 chars)

   Nestled in the established Preston Smith neighborhood, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and quiet suburban charm. Freshly updated from Top to Bottom!!! New Roof! New Paint Inside and Out! New Vinyl Plank Flooring throughout! New Quartz Countertops in kitchen & baths! New Ceiling Fans & Light Fixtures throughout! New Water Heater! New Stainless Steel Appliances! Security System! 2 Car Attached Garage! Gas Fireplace! Spacious Fenced Yard! Move In Ready!!!

3. 2026-03-10
   listed $209,900 Active 503-char remark

   Show marketing remark (503 chars)

   Nestled in the established Preston Smith neighborhood, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and quiet suburban charm. Freshly updated from Top to Bottom!!! New Roof! New Paint Inside and Out! New Vinyl Plank Flooring throughout! New Quartz Countertops in kitchen & baths! New Ceiling Fans & Light Fixtures throughout! New Water Heater! New Stainless Steel Appliances! Security System! 2 Car Attached Garage! Gas Fireplace! Spacious Fenced Yard! Move In Ready!!!

4. 2026-01-21
   soldstatus
5. 1986-10-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,434 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$135/yr (+$11/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,434
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,478
• Household income: $97,231
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1958.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.64%
• Current HPI: 213.2155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $194,996 LARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $199,900 LARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $209,900 LARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,434 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.