10153 Ventura Dr · Dellwood, MO 63136

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 849 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1954 7,479 sqft lot $47/sqft · 46% below area Est $73k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity suitable for fix and flip or adding to rental portfolio. Exterior boasts vinyl siding with decorative brick veneer and vinyl windows. Additionally featuring attached garage, storage shed, and concrete patio. Interior has been cleared out for a blank slate in need of rehabilitation. Utilities are currently off, sold as is. Seller will not provide any repairs or inspections.

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Attached garage
• Storage shed

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• DECORATIVE BRICK VENEER
• VINYL WINDOWS
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED
• CONCRETE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private ownership
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (garage faces front); Driveway; Garage size listed as 190 (description); 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity provided by Ameren; Electricity, natural gas, and sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One story
• Construction: Brick veneer, frame, and vinyl siding construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Fixer condition
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain link and partial fencing; Back yard and front yard; Rectangular lot; Concrete road frontage on a city street; Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Insulated windows; No fireplace; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.6% vs local median 10.4% in Dellwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lemasters Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 295 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.16%
• DSCR: 4.39
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,395
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -45.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10038 Balboa Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0	864 (+2%)	2mo	$49,900	$58	78
10157 Winkler Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-7%)	5mo	$60,000	$76	72
10236 Monarch Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	850 (+0%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	70
1829 Chambers Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-4%)	2mo	$34,900	$43	63
9840 Green Valley Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-4%)	2mo	$83,000	$102	62
2042 Kappel Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	828 (-2%)	1mo	$49,900	$60	59
10228 Viscount Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	925 (+9%)	2mo	$155,000	$168	58
9858 Green Valley Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	936 (+10%)	2mo	$74,900	$80	55
1679 Maldon Ln	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-4%)	4mo	$85,000	$104	53
10146 Clairmont Dr	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	970 (+14%)	3mo	$25,000	$26	50
10035 Clairmont Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	735 (-13%)	1mo	$74,900	$102	48
1719 Newhall Ct	0.74mi	3/1.0	975 (+15%)	0mo	$120,000	$123	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $54,370
• Equity at exit: $19,792

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 12.80×
• Total profit: $132,168
• Equity at exit: $31,986

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $747/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $365

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $733	-5% $722	+0% $711	+5% $699	+10% $688
Rent	-10% $611	-5% $661	+0% $711	+5% $761	+10% $811
Rate	-1.0pp $731	-0.5pp $721	base $711	+0.5pp $700	+1.0pp $690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	44d	1	0.08mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	24d	1	0.08mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.10mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	4d	1	0.19mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	8d	1	0.20mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	24d	1	0.26mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	15d	1	0.43mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	24d	1	0.61mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	8d	1	0.61mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	44d	1	0.62mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	44d	1	0.65mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	24d	1	0.68mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	8d	1	0.68mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	23d	1	0.73mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	24d	1	0.73mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.74mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	3d	1	0.77mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	0.77mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	8d	1	0.77mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.78mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	44d	1	0.80mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	24d	1	0.81mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	44d	1	0.82mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	15d	1	0.83mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	44d	1	0.83mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	44d	1	0.84mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	5d	1	0.86mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	44d	1	0.88mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	44d	1	0.90mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	23d	1	0.93mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	44d	1	0.94mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	0.96mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	44d	1	0.97mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	13d	1	0.97mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	0.98mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	24d	1	0.99mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	1.01mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	24d	1	1.01mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	44d	1	1.01mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	923	$985	$1.07	24d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $40,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $40,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $40,000 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $40,000 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $40,000 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $40,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    price $40,000 397-char remark
11. 2026-05-12
    listed $50,000 Active 397-char remark
12. 1995-04-07
    soldstatus $39,000
13. 1964-08-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $747 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $747 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$747
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $8,402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,016
• After-tax cash flow: $6,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Dellwood

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #239
• US rank: #11618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+2.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-25 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1964-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $747 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.