369 Saint Joes Ave · Trenton, NJ 08638

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1896 1,260 sqft lot Est $298k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Paint, paper and profit! It's not perfect and that's exactly why you can buy this 3 bedroom, possibly 4 with walk up attic, bedroom brick semi home for such a good price!! LR, DR, EIK and full basement. Nice size backyard. New heating system. TLC is all that is needed.

Key facts

• Built 1896
• Listed 177 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Accessibility improvements for mobility

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Semi-detached property; Pitched roof; Estimated year built
• Construction: Brick construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade other structures
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Street lights

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level; Rooms include: Living Room, Dining Room, Master Bedroom, Bedroom 2, Bedroom 1, Attic
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; 100 amp electric service; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1896 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1896 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.96%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Klagg Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (+4%)	10mo	$150,000	$132	77
524 St Joes	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+14%)	16mo	$185,000	$147	58
1142 Indiana Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-9%)	8mo	$300,000	$300	54
18 Dexter St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+9%)	1mo	$139,000	$116	50
249 Lynwood Ave	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,108 (+1%)	15mo	$300,000	$271	49
709 Mulberry St S	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+13%)	8mo	$285,000	$230	48
194 Atlantic Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-8%)	3mo	$390,000	$387	45
68 Myrtle	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,208 (+10%)	6mo	$300,000	$248	43
39 Heil Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-4%)	18mo	$145,000	$138	43
929 Lanning Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+14%)	8mo	$400,000	$321	41
38 Myrtle St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-8%)	12mo	$400,000	$397	39
212 Atlantic Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+14%)	14mo	$400,000	$321	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $9,559
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $63,280
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08638

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,355/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,540

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $746	-5% $691	+0% $635	+5% $580	+10% $525
Rent	-10% $450	-5% $543	+0% $635	+5% $728	+10% $821
Rate	-1.0pp $734	-0.5pp $685	base $635	+0.5pp $585	+1.0pp $533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
416 Klagg Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1034	$2,300	$2.22	21d	1	0.22mi
1040 Indiana Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1232	$2,950	$2.39	14d	1	0.49mi
901 Brunswick Ave #7 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	940	$2,800	$2.98	14d	1	0.57mi
1165 E State St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	14d	1	0.59mi
1163 E State St Unit 9 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	775	$1,770	$2.28	21d	1	0.59mi
331 Ellis Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1190	$2,275	$1.91	21d	1	0.61mi
21 Adella Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1280	$2,000	$1.56	14d	1	0.65mi
25 Adella Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1280	$2,050	$1.60	14d	1	0.65mi
219 Woodlawn Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1456	$2,355	$1.62	14d	1	0.65mi
1314 Princeton Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,400	$2.20	14d	1	0.74mi
417 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	992	$2,050	$2.07	21d	1	0.76mi
42 Grant St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	14d	1	0.83mi
340 Connecticut Ave Unit 2 Hamilton Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,850	$2.04	14d	1	0.83mi
340 Connecticut Ave Unit 1 Hamilton Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	14d	1	0.83mi
339 Tioga St #339 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	864	$1,850	$2.14	21d	1	0.84mi
8 Joan Ter Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1397	$3,250	$2.33	21d	1	0.86mi
77 Race St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	21d	1	0.88mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	21d	1	0.90mi
1474 Nottingham Way Hamilton Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$2,195	$2.83	21d	1	0.98mi
428 Cleveland Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	21d	1	1.01mi
105 Walnut Ave Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	21d	1	1.07mi
756 Cherry Tree Ln Lawrence Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	1207	$2,200	$1.82	14d	1	1.10mi
134 Old Rose St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	21d	1	1.15mi
130 W Ingham Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1126	$2,000	$1.78	14d	1	1.21mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	21d	1	1.25mi
550 Lawrenceville Rd Lawrence Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$1,655	$1.82	21d	1	1.26mi
24 New Trent St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,350	$1.76	14d	1	1.28mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	21d	1	1.28mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	14d	1	1.29mi
2140 Princeton Pike Lawrenceville, NJ	2.0	1.0	952	$2,700	$2.84	21d	1	1.30mi
125 Olive St Trenton, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	896	$1,392	$1.55	21d	1	1.36mi
216 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	811	$1,895	$2.34	14d	2	1.44mi
202 E Hanover St Unit 5G Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	21d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 161 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-02-20
    price $195,000
16. 2025-12-23
    listed $205,000 Active
17. 2025-06-11
    soldstatus $163,000
18. 2022-06-07
    soldstatus $70,000
19. 2007-07-03
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 2005-05-16
    soldstatus $43,000
21. 2005-04-30
    soldstatus $48,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Paint, paper and profit! It's not perfect and that's exactly why you can buy this 3 bedroom, possibly 4 with walk up attic, bedroom brick semi home for such a good price!! LR, DR, EIK and full basement. Nice size backyard. New heating system. TLC is all that is needed.

22. 2005-01-07
    historical 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Paint, paper and profit! It's not perfect and that's exactly why you can buy this 3 bedroom, possibly 4 with walk up attic, bedroom brick semi home for such a good price!! LR, DR, EIK and full basement. Nice size backyard. New heating system. TLC is all that is needed.

23. 2004-11-30
    listed $48,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Paint, paper and profit! It's not perfect and that's exactly why you can buy this 3 bedroom, possibly 4 with walk up attic, bedroom brick semi home for such a good price!! LR, DR, EIK and full basement. Nice size backyard. New heating system. TLC is all that is needed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,355 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,105 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,750/yr (+$146/mo · 129.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,355
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $4,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,130
• After-tax cash flow: $6,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 22,816
• Household income: $66,875
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1185.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 43% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.00%
• Current HPI: 334.5143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.31%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+306.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-23 Listed $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-30 Sold (MLS) $48,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-01-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-11-30 Listed $48,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,355 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.