2222 Zeke Ave · San Carlos, TX 78542

$158,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1987 6,067 sqft lot $198/sqft · 37% above area Est $195k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Edinburg, Texas, near Monte Cristo and Val Verde Roads, this two story home offers convenient access to a variety of nearby local businesses. Situated in the San Carlos Subdivision, the property features four bedrooms within the main residence, along with an additional separate living space (1 Bed + 1 Full Bath)(112 sq. ft.) in the backyard. With 1,354 square feet total of living space, this home provides a comfortable and functional layout. Schedule your private showing today or call for more information!

Key facts

• 6,067 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1987

Tags

• SAN CARLOS SUBDIVISION
• SEPARATE LIVING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (41.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,296 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1003 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,605 (41.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.29%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,000
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: -18.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-45,468
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-72,283
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78542

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1003
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $926 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,270/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,266

Max offer price $110,546

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $158,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $158,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    status Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Located in Edinburg, Texas, near Monte Cristo and Val Verde Roads, this two story home offers convenient access to a variety of nearby local businesses. Situated in the San Carlos Subdivision, the property features four bedrooms within the main residence, along with an additional separate living space (1 Bed + 1 Full Bath)(112 sq. ft.) in the backyard. With 1,354 square feet total of living space, this home provides a comfortable and functional layout. Schedule your private showing today or call for more information!

17. 2026-04-14
    status Pending 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Located in Edinburg, Texas, near Monte Cristo and Val Verde Roads, this two story home offers convenient access to a variety of nearby local businesses. Situated in the San Carlos Subdivision, the property features four bedrooms within the main residence, along with an additional separate living space (1 Bed + 1 Full Bath)(112 sq. ft.) in the backyard. With 1,354 square feet total of living space, this home provides a comfortable and functional layout. Schedule your private showing today or call for more information!

18. 2026-04-13
    historical Option 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Located in Edinburg, Texas, near Monte Cristo and Val Verde Roads, this two story home offers convenient access to a variety of nearby local businesses. Situated in the San Carlos Subdivision, the property features four bedrooms within the main residence, along with an additional separate living space (1 Bed + 1 Full Bath)(112 sq. ft.) in the backyard. With 1,354 square feet total of living space, this home provides a comfortable and functional layout. Schedule your private showing today or call for more information!

19. 2026-03-25
    listed $158,000 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Located in Edinburg, Texas, near Monte Cristo and Val Verde Roads, this two story home offers convenient access to a variety of nearby local businesses. Situated in the San Carlos Subdivision, the property features four bedrooms within the main residence, along with an additional separate living space (1 Bed + 1 Full Bath)(112 sq. ft.) in the backyard. With 1,354 square feet total of living space, this home provides a comfortable and functional layout. Schedule your private showing today or call for more information!

20. 2020-01-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,622/yr (+$135/mo · 127.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$1,270
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$889
• − Management: −$889
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$6,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,481
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edinburg CISD
• NCES district ID: 4818180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,985
• Composite: 22.42/100
• National rank: #8114
• State rank: #699 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Carlos

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1296
• US rank: #22514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 89,401
• Household income: $55,243
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1240.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 59% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.17%
• Current HPI: 220.921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.07%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $158,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2020-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,270 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.