8922 Golden Mist Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$469,990

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,097 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2020 7,000 sqft lot $152/sqft · at area comps Est $464k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully designed two-story home tucked near the end of a quiet cul-de-sac in Sienna. Built by Newmark Homes in 2020, it offers timeless curb appeal with a brick exterior and a welcoming covered front porch. Inside, the layout is both functional and inviting. Two bedrooms are located downstairs, perfect for guests, multigenerational living, or a private office. The engineered hardwood floors and natural light create a warm, open feel throughout. The kitchen features quartz countertops, a spacious island, and stainless steel appliances. It flows into the living room, where a cozy corner fireplace adds charm and comfort. Step outside to a covered patio. It's a great space to relax, enterta

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Quartz countertops
• Brick exterior

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• QUIET CUL DE SAC
• BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ENGINEERED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 3,134 (listed)
• Financial info: No lease considered
• HOA & community: Sienna Residential Association; Association fee $1,205 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2020; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Covered deck/patio; Property on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Microwave; Quartz counters; Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13x17); First-floor bedroom (12x11); Second-floor bedroom (12x11); Second-floor bedroom (11x12); Second-floor bedroom (11x13); Game room on second floor (15x15)
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas, zoned); Central air conditioning (electric, zoned)
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace (one); Double vanities; Kitchen island; Quartz countertops; Separate shower; Walk-in pantry; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $470k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $470k).
• Recommended offer: $456k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,335/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($456k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $455,890 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,064
• List price: $469,990
• Delta: 1.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8815 Iron Forge Rd	0.23mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,275 (+6%)	2mo	$535,000	$163	71
9010 Bayou Spring Ct	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,180 (+3%)	1mo	$605,000	$190	67
8919 Autumn Pine Dr	0.18mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,439 (+11%)	3mo	$597,000	$174	64
9418 San Marco Dr	0.43mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,266 (+6%)	4mo	$745,000	$228	61
1939 Creekwood Cv	0.48mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,344 (+8%)	2mo	$594,990	$178	57
9019 Serenity Frst	0.31mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,474 (+12%)	3mo	$824,900	$237	56
9227 Turtle Pond Ln	0.47mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,404 (+10%)	2mo	$600,000	$176	55
2610 Lazy Vine Ln	0.64mi	4/4.5 (-1)	2,907 (-6%)	1mo	$715,000	$246	52
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,935 (-5%)	4mo	$445,000	$152	51
1506 Country Air Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,808 (-9%)	4mo	$425,000	$151	42
2618 Lazy Vine Ln	0.65mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,478 (+12%)	1mo	$750,000	$216	41
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,763 (-11%)	4mo	$399,950	$145	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-47,606
• Equity at exit: $98,570

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-53,748
• Equity at exit: $91,300

Cash invested: $131,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax from tax record: −$1,189 /mo · $14,269/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,120
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,000

Max offer price $469,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $531	-5% $398	+0% $265	+5% $132	+10% $-1
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $54	+0% $265	+5% $476	+10% $687
Rate	-1.0pp $502	-0.5pp $385	base $265	+0.5pp $143	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,498
• Closing costs: $14,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.17mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.41mi
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	4d	1	0.47mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	11d	1	0.63mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $469,990 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $469,990 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $469,990 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $469,990 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $469,990 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $469,990 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $469,990 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $469,990 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $469,990 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $469,990 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $469,990 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $469,990 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $469,990 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    listed $469,990 Active 884-char remark
15. 2026-04-21
    historical
16. 2026-02-27
    price $479,990
17. 2026-02-04
    listed $490,000 Active
18. 2026-02-01
    historical
19. 2025-11-08
    price $499,900
20. 2025-10-16
    price $517,900
21. 2025-10-08
    listed $529,900 Active
22. 2020-07-10
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2020-06-10
    status Pending
24. 2020-04-04
    price $379,194
25. 2020-03-07
    price $394,194
26. 2019-12-09
    listed $404,194 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $14,269 · $1,189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,269 · $1,189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,327
• − Property taxes: −$14,269
• − Insurance: −$2,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,122
• − Management: −$5,122
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$13,672
• Taxable loss: −$4,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$969
• After-tax cash flow: $4,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $469,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $479,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $490,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $499,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $517,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $529,900 HARMLS
• 2020-07-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-04 Price Changed $379,194 HARMLS
• 2020-03-07 Price Changed $394,194 HARMLS
• 2019-12-09 Listed $404,194 HARMLS

Property tax history

+49.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,269 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.