35068 Rayville Dr · Watson, LA 70706

$219,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,780 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2014 9,147 sqft lot $124/sqft · at area comps Est $213k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable Watson area of Denham Springs! Built in 2014, this home offers approximately 1,780 living square feet with a functional open floor plan, spacious living area, and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and flows seamlessly into the main living space--perfect for entertaining. Situated on a fully fenced in lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, privacy, and future possibilities. Located in the highly sought-after Live Oak school district with low HOA fees. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and easy access to Baton Rouge. A great opportunity for space, comfort, and location! DID NOT FLOOD in 2016 and qualifies for RD-100% financing! Hurry and schedule your showing before it's too late! *Structure square footage and lot dimensions are not warranted by Realtor*

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Ample cabinetry
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO BATON ROUGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($434/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.9% in Watson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#50 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 344 active listings in the ZIP; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,222 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,270
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: 3.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35080 Rayville Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,518 (-15%)	4mo	$220,000	$145	66
9160 Abundance St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,733 (-3%)	17mo	$229,000	$132	66
8975 Springfield Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (-2%)	14mo	$140,000	$80	63
35576 Melrose Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,751 (-2%)	3mo	$239,000	$136	62
34836 Eagle Ridge Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-8%)	12mo	$210,000	$128	61
34900 Dearman Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (-8%)	12mo	$121,000	$74	59
35075 Rayville Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (-12%)	18mo	$205,000	$131	58
9103 Springfield Rd	0.31mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,607 (-10%)	10mo	$255,000	$159	52
35630 Melrose Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,758 (-1%)	10mo	$250,000	$142	52
35571 Melrose Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,717 (-4%)	16mo	$224,900	$131	49
9152 D'everaux Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,758 (-1%)	14mo	$239,900	$136	47
9061 Mot St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (-12%)	14mo	$189,900	$122	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-33,348
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-26,148
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,173/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,826

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $98	+0% $36	+5% $-26	+10% $-88
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-38	+0% $36	+5% $110	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $92	base $36	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 885-char remark

   Show marketing remark (893 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable Watson area of Denham Springs! Built in 2014, this home offers approximately 1,780 living square feet with a functional open floor plan, spacious living area, and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and flows seamlessly into the main living space—perfect for entertaining. Situated on a fully fenced in lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, privacy, and future possibilities. Located in the highly sought-after Live Oak school district with low HOA fees. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and easy access to Baton Rouge. A great opportunity for space, comfort, and location! DID NOT FLOOD in 2016 and qualifies for RD-100% financing! Hurry and schedule your showing before it's too late! * Structure square footage and lot dimensions are not warranted by Realtor *

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 893-char remark

   Show marketing remark (893 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable Watson area of Denham Springs! Built in 2014, this home offers approximately 1,780 living square feet with a functional open floor plan, spacious living area, and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and flows seamlessly into the main living space—perfect for entertaining. Situated on a fully fenced in lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, privacy, and future possibilities. Located in the highly sought-after Live Oak school district with low HOA fees. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and easy access to Baton Rouge. A great opportunity for space, comfort, and location! DID NOT FLOOD in 2016 and qualifies for RD-100% financing! Hurry and schedule your showing before it's too late! * Structure square footage and lot dimensions are not warranted by Realtor *

3. 2026-05-02
   status Active 885-char remark

   Show marketing remark (893 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable Watson area of Denham Springs! Built in 2014, this home offers approximately 1,780 living square feet with a functional open floor plan, spacious living area, and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and flows seamlessly into the main living space—perfect for entertaining. Situated on a fully fenced in lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, privacy, and future possibilities. Located in the highly sought-after Live Oak school district with low HOA fees. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and easy access to Baton Rouge. A great opportunity for space, comfort, and location! DID NOT FLOOD in 2016 and qualifies for RD-100% financing! Hurry and schedule your showing before it's too late! * Structure square footage and lot dimensions are not warranted by Realtor *

4. 2026-05-02
   status Active 893-char remark

   Show marketing remark (893 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable Watson area of Denham Springs! Built in 2014, this home offers approximately 1,780 living square feet with a functional open floor plan, spacious living area, and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and flows seamlessly into the main living space—perfect for entertaining. Situated on a fully fenced in lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, privacy, and future possibilities. Located in the highly sought-after Live Oak school district with low HOA fees. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and easy access to Baton Rouge. A great opportunity for space, comfort, and location! DID NOT FLOOD in 2016 and qualifies for RD-100% financing! Hurry and schedule your showing before it's too late! * Structure square footage and lot dimensions are not warranted by Realtor *

5. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 885-char remark

   Show marketing remark (893 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable Watson area of Denham Springs! Built in 2014, this home offers approximately 1,780 living square feet with a functional open floor plan, spacious living area, and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and flows seamlessly into the main living space—perfect for entertaining. Situated on a fully fenced in lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, privacy, and future possibilities. Located in the highly sought-after Live Oak school district with low HOA fees. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and easy access to Baton Rouge. A great opportunity for space, comfort, and location! DID NOT FLOOD in 2016 and qualifies for RD-100% financing! Hurry and schedule your showing before it's too late! * Structure square footage and lot dimensions are not warranted by Realtor *

6. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 893-char remark

   Show marketing remark (893 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable Watson area of Denham Springs! Built in 2014, this home offers approximately 1,780 living square feet with a functional open floor plan, spacious living area, and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and flows seamlessly into the main living space—perfect for entertaining. Situated on a fully fenced in lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, privacy, and future possibilities. Located in the highly sought-after Live Oak school district with low HOA fees. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and easy access to Baton Rouge. A great opportunity for space, comfort, and location! DID NOT FLOOD in 2016 and qualifies for RD-100% financing! Hurry and schedule your showing before it's too late! * Structure square footage and lot dimensions are not warranted by Realtor *

7. 2026-04-14
   listed $219,900 Active 885-char remark

   Show marketing remark (893 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable Watson area of Denham Springs! Built in 2014, this home offers approximately 1,780 living square feet with a functional open floor plan, spacious living area, and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and flows seamlessly into the main living space—perfect for entertaining. Situated on a fully fenced in lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, privacy, and future possibilities. Located in the highly sought-after Live Oak school district with low HOA fees. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and easy access to Baton Rouge. A great opportunity for space, comfort, and location! DID NOT FLOOD in 2016 and qualifies for RD-100% financing! Hurry and schedule your showing before it's too late! * Structure square footage and lot dimensions are not warranted by Realtor *

8. 2026-04-14
   listed $219,900 Active 893-char remark

   Show marketing remark (893 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable Watson area of Denham Springs! Built in 2014, this home offers approximately 1,780 living square feet with a functional open floor plan, spacious living area, and abundant natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and flows seamlessly into the main living space—perfect for entertaining. Situated on a fully fenced in lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, privacy, and future possibilities. Located in the highly sought-after Live Oak school district with low HOA fees. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and easy access to Baton Rouge. A great opportunity for space, comfort, and location! DID NOT FLOOD in 2016 and qualifies for RD-100% financing! Hurry and schedule your showing before it's too late! * Structure square footage and lot dimensions are not warranted by Realtor *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,173
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$797
• After-tax cash flow: $1,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Watson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,621

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $219,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $219,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+20.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,173 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.