412 Bay St NW · Fort Meade, FL 33841

$129,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · SingleFamily · 320 Days on market

Built 1940 8,381 sqft lot ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Investment Property with Exceptional Cash Flow! Don't miss this beautifully renovated single-family home featuring a fully equipped in-law suite—each side with separate entrances and meters, making it perfect for dual rental income. Recent upgrades include brand new flooring throughout, fresh modern paint, and tasteful finishes that give the home a bright, updated look. The main unit and in-law suite can be rented separately, maximizing income potential. Whether you're an investor seeking strong cash flow or a homeowner looking to offset your mortgage, this property is a rare find. With low maintenance needs and excellent rental appeal, this

Key facts

• In-law suite
• Recent upgrades
• Modern paint

Tags

• IN-LAW SUITE
• SEPARATE ENTRANCES
• DUAL RENTAL INCOME
• RECENT UPGRADES
• NEW FLOORING
• MODERN PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Zoning: R-2; Unfurnished; Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.19-acre lot (approx. 67 x 125)
• Exterior features: Awnings

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#779 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.71%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $101,175
• Equity at exit: $117,113

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.53×
• Total profit: $274,131
• Equity at exit: $252,559

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33841

• Home prices YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $129,999

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $566	-5% $521	+0% $476	+5% $432	+10% $387
Rent	-10% $339	-5% $408	+0% $476	+5% $545	+10% $614
Rate	-1.0pp $542	-0.5pp $510	base $476	+0.5pp $443	+1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   price $129,999
3. 2026-04-10
   status Active
4. 2026-03-31
   historical
5. 2026-03-11
   price $135,000
6. 2026-01-31
   price $139,980
7. 2025-12-05
   status Active
8. 2025-12-05
   price $149,990
9. 2025-10-30
   price $145,000
10. 2025-10-08
    price $165,000
11. 2025-08-22
    price $179,990
12. 2025-07-18
    price $190,000
13. 2025-06-03
    price $199,990
14. 2025-05-07
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3,879
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$931
• After-tax cash flow: $4,787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Meade

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #779
• US rank: #17625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Meade, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,268

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 13% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.92%
• Current HPI: 376.8183
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-42.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $129,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $139,980 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $149,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $179,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $199,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-07 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid