17506 W Van Buren St #433 · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Manufactured · 184 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $179k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great, spacious split level, freshly painted Cavco model! Located right next to the golf course in the desirable Cotton Lane RV Resort. New upgraded toilets. Washer/Dryer/Refrigerator included. The resort offers a variety of features from a 6 hole golf course, pickle ball courts, and indoor pool and spa! Low lot rent. Energy efficient with low utilities. Water, sewage and trash are included with land lease. Some cosmetic work could be done however, that is reflected in the list price.

Key facts

• Spa
• Quartz counter tops
• Indoor pool

Tags

• WHITE KITCHEN CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• INDOOR POOL
• SPA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area source: Builder; Lot size source: Assessor
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease amount $511 per month; Association covers sewer, trash, and water; Community amenities include pool, racquetball, golf, pickleball, community spa (heated), community media room, concierge, tennis courts, and biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space); Common parking; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Steel frame; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Mountain views; East/West exposure; On golf course; Gravel/stone front; Gravel/stone back; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; 3/4 master bathroom; Dual-pane windows with vinyl frames
• Laundry & utility: Has heating and cooling systems

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1088 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $180k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.47%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17506 W Van Buren St #268	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+1%)	2mo	$186,250	$169	92
17506 W Van Buren St #511	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,032 (-6%)	0mo	$165,000	$160	88
17506 W Van Buren St #494	0.07mi	2/2.0	946 (-13%)	0mo	$170,000	$180	74
17506 W Van Buren St #389	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,066 (-2%)	12mo	$138,500	$130	70
17506 W Van Buren St #181	0.24mi	2/2.0	968 (-11%)	6mo	$160,000	$165	65
17506 W Van Buren St #210	0.24mi	2/2.0	968 (-11%)	8mo	$167,500	$173	64
17506 W Van Buren St #109	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	11mo	$186,000	$155	64
17506 W Van Buren St #265	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	12mo	$190,000	$158	62
17506 W Van Buren St #209	0.24mi	2/2.0	968 (-11%)	10mo	$175,000	$181	62
17506 W Van Buren St #398	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+14%)	1mo	$139,000	$111	60
17506 W Van Buren St #183	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (-10%)	10mo	$158,000	$161	58
17506 W Van Buren St #451	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+14%)	2mo	$205,000	$164	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-24,157
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,492
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1088
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,864 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,658

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $225	+0% $163	+5% $101	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $89	+0% $163	+5% $237	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $209	base $163	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17350 W Woodlands Ave Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,879	$1.34	2d	1	0.14mi
195 N 173rd Ave Goodyear, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	822	$1,785	$2.17	2d	12	0.33mi
25 N 173rd Ave Goodyear, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,815	$2.22	2d	29	0.51mi
16985 W Van Buren St Goodyear, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,426	$1.50	2d	57	0.59mi
16965 W Van Buren St Goodyear, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1034	$1,392	$1.35	2d	23	0.62mi
356 N 169th Ave Goodyear, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$2,250	$2.09	2d	1	0.71mi
356 N 169th Ave Unit 356 Goodyear, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,950	$1.81	2d	1	0.71mi
470 N 168th Ln Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.5	1418	$2,600	$1.83	3d	1	0.75mi
458 N 168th Ln Goodyear, AZ	2.0	2.5	1134	$2,000	$1.76	2d	1	0.76mi
575 S Cotton Ln Goodyear, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$1,819	$1.74	2d	32	0.86mi
1050 S 173rd Ave Goodyear, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,712	$1.70	2d	11	1.03mi
602 N 166th Ln Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,695	$1.29	22d	1	1.06mi
602 N 166th Ln Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,695	$1.29	20d	1	1.06mi
1021 S 167th Ln Unit 1545875P Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,932	$2.18	10d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,900 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,900 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,900 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,900 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-05-10
   price $179,900
6. 2026-03-31
   price $185,900
7. 2026-03-20
   price $189,400
8. 2026-01-05
   price $189,500
9. 2026-01-05
   price $189,000
10. 2025-12-17
    price $189,900
11. 2025-12-02
    listed $190,000 Active
12. 2022-02-10
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Great, spacious split level, freshly painted Cavco model! Located right next to the golf course in the desirable Cotton Lane RV Resort. New upgraded toilets. Washer/Dryer/Refrigerator included. The resort offers a variety of features from a 6 hole golf course, pickle ball courts, and indoor pool and spa! Low lot rent. Energy efficient with low utilities. Water, sewage and trash are included with land lease. Some cosmetic work could be done however, that is reflected in the list price.

13. 2021-12-23
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Great, spacious split level, freshly painted Cavco model! Located right next to the golf course in the desirable Cotton Lane RV Resort. New upgraded toilets. Washer/Dryer/Refrigerator included. The resort offers a variety of features from a 6 hole golf course, pickle ball courts, and indoor pool and spa! Low lot rent. Energy efficient with low utilities. Water, sewage and trash are included with land lease. Some cosmetic work could be done however, that is reflected in the list price.

14. 2021-11-22
    listed $119,900 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Great, spacious split level, freshly painted Cavco model! Located right next to the golf course in the desirable Cotton Lane RV Resort. New upgraded toilets. Washer/Dryer/Refrigerator included. The resort offers a variety of features from a 6 hole golf course, pickle ball courts, and indoor pool and spa! Low lot rent. Energy efficient with low utilities. Water, sewage and trash are included with land lease. Some cosmetic work could be done however, that is reflected in the list price.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$219
• After-tax cash flow: $2,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Agua Fria Union High School District (4289)
• NCES district ID: 0400450
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $64,107
• Composite: 27.92/100
• National rank: #6865
• State rank: #99 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $185,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $189,400 ARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $189,500 ARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $189,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $189,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $190,000 ARMLS
• 2022-02-10 Sold (MLS) $115,000 ARMLS
• 2021-12-23 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-11-22 Listed $119,900 ARMLS