2845 E E Hatch Rd #86 · Ceres, CA 95351

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 73 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition $90/sqft · at area comps Est $128k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home in and all ages park and ready for it's new owners! Nestled in an established park with community pool, club house and playground! Home is close to shopping, parks and minutes from the freeway! This home offers, spacious layout, laminated flooring throughout and nice tile throughout the living room. The roof is a couple months old and most of windows have been replaced. Home offers a nice costume storage room. Don't miss this one, it's a fantastic location.

Key facts

• Laminated flooring
• Community pool
• Club house

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUB HOUSE
• PLAYGROUND
• LAMINATED FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $981 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,380/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1964% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.36%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,000
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: 1.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2845 E Hatch Rd #84	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$128,000	$89	99
2845 E Hatch Rd #78	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$67,500	$47	90
2845 E Hatch Rd #71	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	22mo	$110,000	$76	80
2845 E Hatch Rd #87	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+7%)	8mo	$130,000	$85	74
2845 E Hatch Rd #44	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	23mo	$160,000	$114	73
2841 Fowler #37	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$105,000	$73	62
2841 Fowler Rd #42	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,287 (-11%)	1mo	$145,000	$113	56
2841 Fowler Rd #33	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$145,000	$116	51
2841 Fowler #141	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+12%)	12mo	$185,000	$114	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $41,480
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $116,757
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95351

• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,380 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $981

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,071	-5% $1,026	+0% $981	+5% $937	+10% $892
Rent	-10% $793	-5% $887	+0% $981	+5% $1,075	+10% $1,169
Rate	-1.0pp $1,047	-0.5pp $1,015	base $981	+0.5pp $948	+1.0pp $914

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2808 Canyon Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,495	$1.83	22d	1	0.21mi
2685 Parkway Ceres, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$795	$0.69	44d	1	0.35mi
1120 Landreth Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$3,395	$2.18	14d	1	0.53mi
2232 Ridgeway Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,295	$1.60	14d	1	0.72mi
2029 Venus Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,500	$1.87	24d	1	0.79mi
2121 Moffett Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	0.89mi
2714 Pyramid Ave Unit 2714 Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,895	$1.88	24d	1	1.46mi
1301 Richland Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,738	$1.91	14d	10	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $130,000 Active 54 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,284
• − Management: −$2,284
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $10,322
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,477
• After-tax cash flow: $9,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good exterior, interior, and systems. The home is located in a park with community amenities and is ready for new owners.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Replace the awning if it's damaged — Replacing the awning can improve the home's curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Clean the windows — Cleaning the windows can improve the home's curb appeal and increase the home's value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Replace the awning if it's damaged — Replacing the awning can improve the home's curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Clean the windows — Cleaning the windows can improve the home's curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,498
• Household income: $58,275
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1964.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 40% White 13% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -405.77%
• Current HPI: 360.246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B