25099 Farm Road 137 · Petty, TX 75470

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1900 1.00 ac lot $82/sqft · 24% below area Est $152k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming country property with wrap-around porch and peaceful setting on a full acre. Home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, including a vintage claw-foot tub. Spacious eat-in kitchen with fresh interior paint, abundant counter space, and cozy living area with decorative french doors. Exterior amenities include a detached 2-car carport, shed, and additional storage building. Conveniently located approximately 30 minutes from Bois D’Arc Lake at the edge Lamar and Fannin counties.

Key facts

• Wrap-around porch
• 1 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• WRAP-AROUND PORCH
• VINTAGE CLAW-FOOT TUB
• SPACIOUS EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DECORATIVE ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• DETACHED 2-CAR CARPORT
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chisum ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #146 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.79%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,154
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -24.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $28,842
• Equity at exit: $51,709

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $81,596
• Equity at exit: $79,690

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75470

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $736/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $115,000 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Charming country property with wrap-around porch and peaceful setting on a full acre. Home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, including a vintage claw-foot tub. Spacious eat-in kitchen with fresh interior paint, abundant counter space, and cozy living area with decorative french doors. Exterior amenities include a detached 2-car carport, shed, and additional storage building. Conveniently located approximately 30 minutes from Bois D’Arc Lake at the edge Lamar and Fannin counties.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $736 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,369/yr (+$114/mo · 186.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$736
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$240
• After-tax cash flow: $2,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chisum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800012
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,459
• Composite: 44.27/100
• National rank: #2839
• State rank: #146 of 826 in TX

Livability — Petty

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petty, TX
• Population (ZIP): 158

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 25%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $115,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $736 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.