6301 State Route 374 · Chateaugay, NY 12920

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 361 Days on market

Built 1975 0.56 ac lot $103/sqft · 24% below area Est $125k · 24% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home has been 100% remodeled to include new thermal pane windows, newer roof, remodeled interior to include all new flooring, updated bath and kitchen, walls and ceilings, porch, fireplace in living room, newer plumbing, updated electric. Like new condition, must be seen! Close to Chateaugay Lake and boat launch. New Leach Field. Property also includes tax map 104.-1-36 Liber 2009 Page 4105

Key facts

• Remodeled interior
• Updated bath
• Newer roof

Tags

• REMODELED INTERIOR
• NEW THERMAL PANE WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED BATH
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEWER PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#694 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Chateaugay Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #515 of 755 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 361 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 361 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,151
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -24.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $24,758
• Equity at exit: $50,035

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $71,030
• Equity at exit: $83,364

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12920

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $515/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $735

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $128	+0% $102	+5% $75	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $67	+0% $102	+5% $136	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $126	base $102	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 361 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 359 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 358 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 357 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 356 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 354 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 353 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 350 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 349 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 348 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 347 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 344 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 343 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 342 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 341 DOM
16. 2025-10-14
    price $95,000 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    Home has been 100% remodeled to include new thermal pane windows, newer roof, remodeled interior to include all new flooring, updated bath and kitchen, walls and ceilings, porch, fireplace in living room, newer plumbing, updated electric. Like new condition, must be seen! Close to Chateaugay Lake and boat launch. New Leach Field. Property also includes tax map 104.-1-36 Liber 2009 Page 4105

17. 2025-06-24
    listed $106,000 Active 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    Home has been 100% remodeled to include new thermal pane windows, newer roof, remodeled interior to include all new flooring, updated bath and kitchen, walls and ceilings, porch, fireplace in living room, newer plumbing, updated electric. Like new condition, must be seen! Close to Chateaugay Lake and boat launch. New Leach Field. Property also includes tax map 104.-1-36 Liber 2009 Page 4105

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $515 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,060 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$545/yr (+$45/mo · 106.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$515
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$829
• − Management: −$829
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$89
• After-tax cash flow: $1,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chateaugay Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607080
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,279
• Composite: 42.66/100
• National rank: #6803
• State rank: #515 of 755 in NY

Livability — Chateaugay

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #694
• US rank: #13108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,509

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Current HPI: 300.5209
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $95,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $106,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $515 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.