22319 U.s. 54 · Hermitage, MO 65668

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · Other public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1972 0.40 ac lot $105/sqft · 11% below area Est $179k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

🏡 4 Bed. 2 Bath. And at this price? Y'all already know those don't hang around long. Right in town where life's easy. Need groceries? Gas? Bank? Restaurants? School? You're minutes from all the goodies without feeling stacked on top of everybody. Inside, she fresh. Clean, bright, and move-in ready with big windows that let the light pour in and a fireplace that anchors the whole living space just right. Feels comfortable the second you walk through the door. Out back, the big deck is ready for summer nights, cookouts, coffee mornings, and whatever else y'all get into. And when the weekend hits? You're just a short drive to the Pomme. Affordable 4 bedrooms. In town convenience. Good vibes. L

Key facts

• Big windows
• Move-in ready
• In town convenience

Tags

• BIG WINDOWS
• FIREPLACE
• BIG DECK
• MOVE-IN READY
• IN TOWN CONVENIENCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding and concrete construction; Block foundation; Metal roof; Built with 1,528 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Outbuilding; Corner, cleared lot; Asphalt and gravel road access; public maintained road; frontage on city street and highway

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and propane heating sources; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric oven and free‑standing electric oven; Refrigerator; Gas fireplace with stone surround in the living room (propane); Carpet and laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.3% in Hermitage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#788 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hermitage R-IV (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #185 of 535 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hermitage Elem. (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #347 of 1,115 statewide, top 35%, 138 students, 58% FRL); Hermitage Middle (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 50 students, 44% FRL); Hermitage High (math 10% / reading 50%, grade F, #377 of 521 statewide, top 73%, 81 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Hickory County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,697 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,783
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -10.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $87,957
• Equity at exit: $136,081

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $250,494
• Equity at exit: $285,290

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65668

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $494/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $224	-5% $178	+0% $133	+5% $88	+10% $42
Rent	-10% $25	-5% $79	+0% $133	+5% $187	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $214	-0.5pp $174	base $133	+0.5pp $92	+1.0pp $49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $160,000 Active 711-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $494 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,552 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,058/yr (+$88/mo · 213.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$494
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$272
• After-tax cash flow: $1,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermitage R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2914310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,066
• Composite: 40.92/100
• National rank: #7513
• State rank: #185 of 535 in MO

Livability — Hermitage

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #23974

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hermitage, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,692

Population outlook (Hickory County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,206 people
• By 2030: 7,690 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 6,780 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,076 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 5,088 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 4,489 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickory

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.30%
• Current HPI: 215.6823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-12 Listed $160,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $494 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.