16556 Rustic Rd · Wellington, FL 33470

$916,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1978 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

5 great acres, priced accordingly. Incredible opportunity to buy a 5 acre lot with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a pool and city water Below market price. This can be your private retreat in the beautiful city of Wellington Fl. The peaceful 5 acres is set on high land; House need repairs just cleanup the lot and bring your horses! Opportunity knocks! Come and see for yourself.

Key facts

• Bring your horses
• 5 acre lot
• Private retreat

Tags

• 5 ACRE LOT
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• BRING YOUR HORSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $916k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($431/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $698k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $698k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Wellington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#294 in FL, #4,986 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Binks Forest Elementary School (math 85% / reading 85%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 1,147 students, 18% FRL); Wellington Landings Middle (math 70% / reading 72%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,230 students, 29% FRL); Wellington High School (math 57% / reading 65%, grade C+, #102 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 2,688 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 52% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 599 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,981/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 43% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($902k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $698,053 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-112,140
• Equity at exit: $136,579

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $59,208
• Equity at exit: $79,199

Cash invested: $256,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33470

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 599
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,804
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,521/yr
• Insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,466
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,935

Max offer price $916,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $554	-5% $295	+0% $36	+5% $-223	+10% $-483
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-240	+0% $36	+5% $312	+10% $587
Rate	-1.0pp $497	-0.5pp $269	base $36	+0.5pp $-201	+1.0pp $-443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $229,000
• Closing costs: $27,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1871 Corsica Dr Wellington, FL	4.0	2.0	2282	$7,500	$3.29	26d	1	0.87mi
1851 Corsica Dr Wellington, FL	5.0	3.0	2784	$6,000	$2.16	26d	1	0.88mi
1907 S Club Dr Wellington, FL	4.0	3.0	2696	$8,000	$2.97	26d	1	1.05mi
2721 Neaton Ct Wellington, FL	3.0	3.0	1850	$4,800	$2.59	24d	1	1.21mi
2447 Country Golf Dr Wellington, FL	4.0	2.5	2125	$8,000	$3.76	9d	1	1.27mi
15155 Newquay Ct Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1943	$5,000	$2.57	26d	1	1.29mi
2104 Country Golf Dr Wellington, FL	4.0	3.5	2905	$8,000	$2.75	26d	1	1.30mi
2573 Country Golf Dr Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1812	$7,500	$4.14	26d	1	1.31mi
15072 Corby Ct Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	1943	$9,000	$4.63	26d	1	1.36mi
1520 S Club Dr Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	2462	$7,500	$3.05	26d	1	1.38mi
1265 Longlea Ter Wellington, FL	3.0	2.0	2374	$8,500	$3.58	20d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-12
   listed $916,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,521 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,603 · $634/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,082/yr (+$340/mo · 115.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $83,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$51,310
• − Property taxes: −$3,521
• − Insurance: −$4,580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,701
• − Management: −$6,701
• − Depreciation: −$26,647
• Taxable loss: −$15,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,767
• After-tax cash flow: $4,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wellington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #4986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wellington, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 60,184
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,610
• Household income: $122,163
• Rent vs Own: 5.4% rent · 94.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 43.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 16% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.68%
• Current HPI: 410.2689
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.68%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $916,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,521 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.