2020 Laura St · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$164,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1985 6,621 sqft lot $208/sqft · at area comps Est $198k · 17% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your search just ended. This is what a complete renovation actually looks like in Caddo Mills — not a paint-and-carpet flip, but every system in this house replaced from the ground up, all fully permitted. New 3-ton HVAC and all new ductwork (2022). New argon gas dual-pane windows (2023) — FABULOUS energy efficiency. Brand new electrical panel with all new wiring throughout (2022). All new plumbing and water heater (2022). All new exterior siding and insulation (2022). Kitchen remodeled: white shaker cabinets, stainless steel appliances, gas range. Bathroom remodeled with tile surround. Fresh paint (2025). New garage door and opener (2022). Foundation repaired 2023 — engineer report on file. NO HOA. Single-story, attached 1-car garage. Oversized primary suite at 20x15. Big private yard. Walking distance to Caddo Mills High School and local shops — a rare find. Zoned to Caddo Mills ISD — Caddo Mills Elementary, Middle, and High. The work is done. The permits are pulled. Just in time for summer.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New wiring
• New hvac

Tags

• NEW HVAC
• NEW DUCTWORK
• NEW ARGON GAS WINDOWS
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• NEW WIRING
• NEW PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($14/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 316 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,879
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -16.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2301 Joshua St	0.22mi	2/1.0	880 (+11%)	16mo	$125,000	$142	54
2110 Joshua St	0.18mi	2/1.0	910 (+15%)	21mo	$220,000	$242	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-26,596
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-22,861
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,004/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $48	+0% $1	+5% $-45	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-58	+0% $1	+5% $60	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $43	base $1	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2312 Gilmer St Caddo Mills, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	45d	1	0.37mi
2312 Gilmer St Caddo Mills, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	0d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $164,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    listed $174,900 Active 1040-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1040 chars)

    Your search just ended. This is what a complete renovation actually looks like in Caddo Mills — not a paint-and-carpet flip, but every system in this house replaced from the ground up, all fully permitted. New 3-ton HVAC and all new ductwork (2022). New argon gas dual-pane windows (2023) — FABULOUS energy efficiency. Brand new electrical panel with all new wiring throughout (2022). All new plumbing and water heater (2022). All new exterior siding and insulation (2022). Kitchen remodeled: white shaker cabinets, stainless steel appliances, gas range. Bathroom remodeled with tile surround. Fresh paint (2025). New garage door and opener (2022). Foundation repaired 2023 — engineer report on file. NO HOA. Single-story, attached 1-car garage. Oversized primary suite at 20x15. Big private yard. Walking distance to Caddo Mills High School and local shops — a rare find. Zoned to Caddo Mills ISD — Caddo Mills Elementary, Middle, and High. The work is done. The permits are pulled. Just in time for summer.

18. 2026-01-05
    price $189,900
19. 2025-11-12
    price $193,900
20. 2025-10-07
    price $194,900
21. 2025-09-15
    price $195,000
22. 2025-07-22
    price $199,500
23. 2025-06-17
    price $205,000
24. 2025-06-07
    price $215,000
25. 2025-06-07
    status Active
26. 2025-04-08
    status Pending
27. 2025-04-02
    historical Active Option Contract
28. 2025-04-01
    listed $220,000 Active
29. 2024-01-25
    soldstatus
30. 2023-05-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,004 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,018 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$13/yr (+$1/mo · 0.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$3,004
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2,743
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$658
• After-tax cash flow: $672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caddo Mills, TX
• City population: 10,265
• Population (ZIP): 10,265

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $193,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $194,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $199,500 NTREIS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-04-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-04-02 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2024-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,004 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.