5472 Gingerbread · Saw Creek, PA 18302

$264,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,194 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2007 0.46 ac lot Est $267k · at est. $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in the sought-after Leisure Lands community, this charming 4-bedroom, 4-bath home offers the perfect blend of mountain living and everyday comfort. Spread across nearly half an acre, enjoy the privacy and space you've been looking for — without sacrificing convenience. Step inside to find a warm, inviting layout anchored by a cozy fireplace, ideal for those crisp Pocono evenings. The finished basement gives you bonus flex space — think home gym, media room, or guest retreat. With 4 full baths and generous bedroom count, there's room for the whole family or your weekend guests. Outside, your wooded lot sets the stage for fire pit nights, nature walks, and true mountai

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Mountain living
• Fire pit nights

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• WOODED LOT
• FIRE PIT NIGHTS
• NATURE WALKS
• MOUNTAIN LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple; Ground rent paid annually
• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee of $50

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with inside access (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public water service; On-site septic; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Estimated year built
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Above-grade and below-grade structures noted; Public water; On-site septic

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; Two bedrooms on the first lower level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level; Two full bathrooms on the first lower level; Four full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Electric heating fuel; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Estimated living area; No basement; Main-level accessibility ramp

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $261k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.3% in Saw Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $265k implies a 1505% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,926 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.65%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,456
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1169 Coolbaugh Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+0%)	1mo	$255,000	$213	65
5147 Arrowhead Ln	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (+0%)	10mo	$272,000	$227	64
5949 Panda Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+6%)	16mo	$235,000	$187	56
5326 Red Fox Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,256 (+5%)	12mo	$274,000	$218	53
109 Owl Trl	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+8%)	15mo	$305,000	$235	36
3353 Frontier Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,116 (-6%)	18mo	$250,000	$224	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-28,436
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,791
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18302

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$443 /mo · $5,319/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,464

Max offer price $264,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $301	+0% $226	+5% $151	+10% $76
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $117	+0% $226	+5% $334	+10% $443
Rate	-1.0pp $359	-0.5pp $293	base $226	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6281 Lakeshore Dr E East Stroudsburg, PA	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,750	$1.90	44d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $264,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $264,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,900 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 687-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    listed $279,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,319 · $443/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,319 · $443/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$5,319
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$1,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$364
• After-tax cash flow: $3,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,593

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.00%
• Current HPI: 157.9833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1596.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $279,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,319 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.