2467 Coconino Blvd · Kaibab Estates West, AZ 86046

$179,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1969 1.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to this charming home nestled peaceful in the countryside. This cozy 3-bedroom home is fully furnished, and everything stays! (Even the coffee pot!) With central air you'll be comfortable all year long. This well manicured parcel offers perimeter field fencing with a 22 Foot entrance gate large enough for the RV. Sit back and relax, the peace and quiet, dark night skies and mountain views are all yours! Wondering if it is a nice as the photos? It sure is!! Call for a property tour today and come see for yourself!

Key facts

• Carport
• Storage shed
• Central air

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• CENTRAL AIR
• PERIMETER FIELD FENCING
• 22 FOOT ENTRANCE GATE
• CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a county-maintained dirt road; Zoned AR 1AC Min
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: RV parking available; Parking pad for RV
• Utilities: Cistern water source; Hauled water available; Septic (conventional); Electricity available; Propane (owned/rented noted as available)
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Single wide; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Rolled/hot mop roof; Crawl space foundation; Single-pane windows with blinds
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Storm gutters; Native landscaping; Perimeter fencing; Corner lot; Level and rural topography with views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom located downstairs
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Single-level living; Master bedroom on main level; Washer/dryer connection
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; 30-gallon propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.6% in Kaibab Estates West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471) (rural): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #58 of 501 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ash Fork Elementary School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #339 of 1,109 statewide, top 32%, 119 students, 79% FRL); Ash Fork Middle School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C+, #21 of 218 statewide, top 9%, 74 students, 77% FRL); Ash Fork High School (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D, #38 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 100 students, 75% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 65% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 678 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $131,467 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $84,963
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $260,493
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86046

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 678
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $150,285

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-142	+0% $-205	+5% $-267	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-257	+0% $-205	+5% $-153	+10% $-101
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-159	base $-205	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $179,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $185,000 Active
19. 2024-04-04
    soldstatus $148,000 Closed 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Welcome Home to this charming home nestled peaceful in the countryside. This cozy 3-bedroom home is fully furnished, and everything stays! (Even the coffee pot!) With central air you'll be comfortable all year long. This well manicured parcel offers perimeter field fencing with a 22 Foot entrance gate large enough for the RV. Sit back and relax, the peace and quiet, dark night skies and mountain views are all yours! Wondering if it is a nice as the photos? It sure is!! Call for a property tour today and come see for yourself!

20. 2024-04-03
    soldstatus $148,000
21. 2024-03-12
    status Pending 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Welcome Home to this charming home nestled peaceful in the countryside. This cozy 3-bedroom home is fully furnished, and everything stays! (Even the coffee pot!) With central air you'll be comfortable all year long. This well manicured parcel offers perimeter field fencing with a 22 Foot entrance gate large enough for the RV. Sit back and relax, the peace and quiet, dark night skies and mountain views are all yours! Wondering if it is a nice as the photos? It sure is!! Call for a property tour today and come see for yourself!

22. 2024-03-05
    listed $160,000 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Welcome Home to this charming home nestled peaceful in the countryside. This cozy 3-bedroom home is fully furnished, and everything stays! (Even the coffee pot!) With central air you'll be comfortable all year long. This well manicured parcel offers perimeter field fencing with a 22 Foot entrance gate large enough for the RV. Sit back and relax, the peace and quiet, dark night skies and mountain views are all yours! Wondering if it is a nice as the photos? It sure is!! Call for a property tour today and come see for yourself!

23. 1999-06-02
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$5,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,358
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471)
• NCES district ID: 0400910
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $30,345
• Composite: 54.75/100
• National rank: #2833
• State rank: #58 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kaibab Estates West

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kaibab Estates West, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,669

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.78%
• Current HPI: 474.3252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3498.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $179,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Listed $185,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-04 Sold (MLS) $148,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-12 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-05 Listed $160,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $100 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.