3833 Pepper Dr · Rockford, IL 61114

$267,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,918 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2000 0.30 ac lot Est $228k · 17% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL RANCH, MOVE IN READY! MASTER BATH, FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY, AND EXTRA LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH ISLAND. BUILT IN WOODWORK, CERAMIC AND CARPET FLOORING THROUGHOUT WITH NEW CARPET INSTALLED 4/17, NEW SHINGLES IN 2004, BASEMENT FINISHED WITH TWO BONUS ROOMS AND REC ROOM. BONUS ROOM 1 COULD EASILY SERVE AS A BEDROOM WITH CLOSET AND TWO FULL WINDOWS. BONUS ROOM 2 COULD ALSO SERVER AS A BEDROOM WITH CLOSET. PARTIAL EXPOSURE WITH LARGE FENCED BACK YARD AND DECK. LARGE CORNER LOT WITH GARAGE ACCESS OFF DEAD-END. GREAT FOR EXTRA PARKING! CONVENIENT LOCATION WITH EASY ACCESS TO I-90 OR DOWNTOWN. CLOSE TO GROCERY, DINING, AND ENTERTAINMENT. BLOCKS FROM CARLSON SCHOOL AND PARK WITHOUT CROSSING ANY STREETS! PERFECT FOR A LARGE OR GROWING FAMILY.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Gas fireplace
• Huge entryway

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• HUGE ENTRYWAY
• TILED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• BUILT-IN BOOKCASE
• GAS FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $268k).
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clifford P Carlson Elem School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,056 statewide, top 71%, 347 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Middle School (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #540 of 665 statewide, top 82%, 961 students, 0% FRL); Guilford High School (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #345 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 2,071 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.47%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,242
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3833 Pepper Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,918 (0%)	1mo	$294,000	$153	99
3815 Cass Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (-3%)	6mo	$200,000	$108	69
3314 Harwood Ct	0.10mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,760 (-8%)	10mo	$275,000	$156	66
938 E Riverside Blvd	0.65mi	4/3.0	1,995 (+4%)	3mo	$240,000	$120	60
3215 Pecan St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,771 (-8%)	6mo	$210,500	$119	55
634 River Ln	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,904 (-1%)	1mo	$188,500	$99	54
634 River Ln	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,904 (-1%)	1mo	$188,500	$99	54
3107 Sunnyside Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,120 (+10%)	11mo	$202,000	$95	53
5523 Forest Hills Rd	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,080 (+8%)	10mo	$175,000	$84	52
3231 Pepper Ct	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,045 (+7%)	1mo	$235,000	$115	51
4012 Lisa Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,166 (+13%)	11mo	$275,000	$127	47
602 River Ln	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,680 (-12%)	9mo	$200,000	$119	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $42,137
• Equity at exit: $39,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $147,119
• Equity at exit: $23,129

Cash invested: $74,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61114

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,403
• Tax from tax record: −$439 /mo · $5,269/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$875
• Net cashflow: $1,340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,473

Max offer price $267,500

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,492	-5% $1,416	+0% $1,340	+5% $1,264	+10% $1,189
Rent	-10% $1,011	-5% $1,175	+0% $1,340	+5% $1,505	+10% $1,670
Rate	-1.0pp $1,475	-0.5pp $1,408	base $1,340	+0.5pp $1,271	+1.0pp $1,200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,875
• Closing costs: $8,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4016 Eaton Dr Unit 1232695P Rockford, IL	3.0	3.0	1722	$4,169	$2.42	14d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-27
   soldstatus $294,000
2. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-08
   listed $267,500 Active
4. 2017-06-28
   soldstatus $137,000
5. 2017-06-23
   soldstatus $137,000 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL RANCH, MOVE IN READY! MASTER BATH, FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY, AND EXTRA LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH ISLAND. BUILT IN WOODWORK, CERAMIC AND CARPET FLOORING THROUGHOUT WITH NEW CARPET INSTALLED 4/17, NEW SHINGLES IN 2004, BASEMENT FINISHED WITH TWO BONUS ROOMS AND REC ROOM. BONUS ROOM 1 COULD EASILY SERVE AS A BEDROOM WITH CLOSET AND TWO FULL WINDOWS. BONUS ROOM 2 COULD ALSO SERVER AS A BEDROOM WITH CLOSET. PARTIAL EXPOSURE WITH LARGE FENCED BACK YARD AND DECK. LARGE CORNER LOT WITH GARAGE ACCESS OFF DEAD-END. GREAT FOR EXTRA PARKING! CONVENIENT LOCATION WITH EASY ACCESS TO I-90 OR DOWNTOWN. CLOSE TO GROCERY, DINING, AND ENTERTAINMENT. BLOCKS FROM CARLSON SCHOOL AND PARK WITHOUT CROSSING ANY STREETS! PERFECT FOR A LARGE OR GROWING FAMILY.

6. 2017-04-14
   listed $138,000 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL RANCH, MOVE IN READY! MASTER BATH, FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY, AND EXTRA LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH ISLAND. BUILT IN WOODWORK, CERAMIC AND CARPET FLOORING THROUGHOUT WITH NEW CARPET INSTALLED 4/17, NEW SHINGLES IN 2004, BASEMENT FINISHED WITH TWO BONUS ROOMS AND REC ROOM. BONUS ROOM 1 COULD EASILY SERVE AS A BEDROOM WITH CLOSET AND TWO FULL WINDOWS. BONUS ROOM 2 COULD ALSO SERVER AS A BEDROOM WITH CLOSET. PARTIAL EXPOSURE WITH LARGE FENCED BACK YARD AND DECK. LARGE CORNER LOT WITH GARAGE ACCESS OFF DEAD-END. GREAT FOR EXTRA PARKING! CONVENIENT LOCATION WITH EASY ACCESS TO I-90 OR DOWNTOWN. CLOSE TO GROCERY, DINING, AND ENTERTAINMENT. BLOCKS FROM CARLSON SCHOOL AND PARK WITHOUT CROSSING ANY STREETS! PERFECT FOR A LARGE OR GROWING FAMILY.

7. 2006-11-13
   soldstatus $161,500
8. 2004-06-08
   soldstatus $144,500
9. 2000-09-13
   soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,269 · $439/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,671 · $473/mo
• Expected delta: +$402/yr (+$33/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,984
• − Property taxes: −$5,269
• − Insurance: −$1,338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,002
• − Management: −$4,002
• − Depreciation: −$7,782
• Taxable income: $12,651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,036
• After-tax cash flow: $13,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• City population: 147,297
• Population (ZIP): 15,026

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.00%
• Current HPI: 225.8485
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+145.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $294,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-11 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-03-08 Listed $267,500 NWIAR
• 2017-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-23 Sold (MLS) $137,000 NWIAR
• 2017-04-14 Listed $138,000 NWIAR
• 2006-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $161,500 Public Records
• 2004-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $144,500 Public Records
• 2000-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,269 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.