705 Road 5812 · Dayton, TX 77327

$172,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Land · 25 Days on market

Built 2025 7,840 sqft lot $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring modern finishes throughout. The spacious kitchen offers sleek espresso cabinets, tile flooring, and comes complete with a refrigerator. Both bathrooms showcase elegant black tile showers with a contemporary design, no tubs for a cleaner, updated look. Enjoy the privacy of no back neighbors and plenty of parking with an expansive driveway.

Key facts

• Contemporary design
• Spacious kitchen
• Black tile showers

Tags

• MODERN FINISHES
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ESPRESSO CABINETS
• TILE FLOORING
• BLACK TILE SHOWERS
• CONTEMPORARY DESIGN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: El Norte POA with an annual fee of $120

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Built 2025; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Cement siding
• Construction: Built by GG Homes LLC
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12'4"); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11'7" x 10'); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 10')
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Quartz counters; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pine Burr El (691 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,420 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.06%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,980
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $34,462
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $563/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $172,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $461	-5% $412	+0% $364	+5% $315	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $224	-5% $294	+0% $364	+5% $433	+10% $503
Rate	-1.0pp $450	-0.5pp $408	base $364	+0.5pp $319	+1.0pp $274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	0d	1	0.80mi
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	14d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $172,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $172,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $172,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $172,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $172,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $172,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $172,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    listed $172,000 Active
11. 2026-04-30
    historical
12. 2026-02-17
    price $172,000
13. 2026-02-13
    price $181,999
14. 2025-10-23
    price $185,000
15. 2025-10-01
    listed $199,000 Active
16. 2025-06-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $563 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,148 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,585/yr (+$215/mo · 459.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$563
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable income: $1,610
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$386
• After-tax cash flow: $3,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $172,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $172,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $181,999 HARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $563 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.