100 Cattle Bnd · Niederwald, TX 78640

$230,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1999 1.06 ac lot $128/sqft · 15% below area Est $270k · 15% under ↓ 15% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy country living in this spacious double-wide manufactured home set on 1 acre. Featuring an open-concept floor plan, 4 bedrooms, and plenty of room to grow, this property offers great value and opportunity . AC recently updated

Key facts

• Recently updated ac
• 1.06 acre lot
• 6 parking spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• RECENTLY UPDATED AC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Niederwald — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,198 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,186 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,000
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -11.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-26,365
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-24,852
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,072 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $799/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,732

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $230,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $240,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $250,000 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Enjoy country living in this spacious double-wide manufactured home set on 1 acre. Featuring an open-concept floor plan, 4 bedrooms, and plenty of room to grow, this property offers great value and opportunity . AC recently updated

16. 2022-12-14
    soldstatus Closed 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Great corner lot with many smaller trees throughout property. Nice size manufactured home with a massive front exterior deck and covered carport.

17. 2022-12-05
    historical Active Under Contract 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Great corner lot with many smaller trees throughout property. Nice size manufactured home with a massive front exterior deck and covered carport.

18. 2022-11-14
    price $245,000 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Great corner lot with many smaller trees throughout property. Nice size manufactured home with a massive front exterior deck and covered carport.

19. 2022-10-26
    listed $295,000 Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Great corner lot with many smaller trees throughout property. Nice size manufactured home with a massive front exterior deck and covered carport.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $799 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,410/yr (+$284/mo · 426.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$799
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,989
• − Management: −$1,989
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$639
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$153
• After-tax cash flow: $3,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Niederwald

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1198
• US rank: #20995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-12-14 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2022-12-05 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2022-11-14 Price Changed $245,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-10-26 Listed $295,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2018): $799 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.