Discovery Plan · Terrell, TX 75126

$293,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,121 sqft · SingleFamily · 371 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Private backyard
• Granite countertops

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

🏗️ New construction. The $293,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $318,664.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Terrell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#520 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 371 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $238,579 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 371 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,664
• List price: $293,990
• Delta: -7.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5909 Sahara Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	8mo	$305,990	$144	75
1090 Clear Dusk Ln	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,142 (+1%)	1mo	$299,990	$140	62
1059 Clear Dusk Ln	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,111 (-0%)	11mo	$300,000	$142	53
1043 Clear Dusk Ln	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-4%)	10mo	$308,180	$152	50
2065 Pleasant Knoll Cir	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,142 (+1%)	14mo	$300,000	$140	49
1053 Clear Dusk Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,257 (+6%)	10mo	$317,090	$140	49
1057 Clear Dusk Ln	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-4%)	13mo	$326,130	$161	48
1087 Clear Dusk Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,346 (+11%)	3mo	$329,990	$141	45
2058 Pleasant Knoll Cir	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,346 (+11%)	5mo	$295,000	$126	40
1061 Clear Dusk Ln	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,429 (+14%)	9mo	$309,990	$128	34
6121 Harrah Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-13%)	17mo	$274,900	$149	32
1213 Autumn Mist Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,390 (+13%)	23mo	$334,990	$140	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-75,553
• Equity at exit: $47,514

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-106,522
• Equity at exit: $27,552

Cash invested: $89,226 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,386 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,671
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$398 /mo · $4,780/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,788

Max offer price $272,730

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-97	-5% $-207	+0% $-317	+5% $-428	+10% $-538
Rent	-10% $-506	-5% $-412	+0% $-317	+5% $-223	+10% $-129
Rate	-1.0pp $-157	-0.5pp $-236	base $-317	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-484

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,666
• Closing costs: $9,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5919 Sahara Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,100	$1.31	26d	1	0.39mi
4080 Dayton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1984	$2,295	$1.16	20d	1	0.42mi
5734 Roadhouse Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,350	$1.11	0d	1	0.43mi
6086 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,995	$1.41	9d	1	0.45mi
5940 Sahara Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,650	$1.56	0d	1	0.47mi
6075 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2777	$2,595	$0.93	17d	1	0.47mi
6231 Old Bridge Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2308	$2,300	$1.00	0d	1	0.48mi
6076 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2962	$2,900	$0.98	45d	1	0.48mi
6076 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2962	$2,595	$0.88	5d	1	0.48mi
6222 Old Bridge Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,795	$1.27	14d	1	0.48mi
6229 Old Bridge Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$1,950	$0.92	14d	1	0.48mi
6215 Old Bridge Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,845	$1.15	45d	1	0.52mi
6211 Old Bridge Way Unit 6211OB Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,845	$1.31	4d	1	0.53mi
1129 Clear Dusk Ln Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2520	$3,600	$1.43	45d	1	0.54mi
6309 Tropicana Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,050	$1.45	45d	1	0.56mi
6310 Tropicana Ln Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2580	$2,635	$1.02	0d	1	0.58mi
6624 Charleston Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,045	$1.45	5d	1	0.60mi
6040 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,990	$1.09	26d	1	0.60mi
6109 Harrah Ln Unit 6109HL Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,745	$1.25	4d	1	0.60mi
6103 Harrah Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,845	$1.31	4d	1	0.62mi
6101 Harrah Ln Unit 6101HL Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,745	$1.25	26d	1	0.62mi
4424 Lassen Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,295	$1.16	45d	1	0.64mi
6658 Charleston Dr Unit 6658CD Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,935	$1.21	9d	1	0.66mi
1229 Autumn Mist Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,795	$1.07	6d	1	0.66mi
6012 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,845	$1.15	45d	1	0.67mi
2043 Pleasant Knoll Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,099	$1.21	45d	1	0.77mi
1539 Wheatley Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2396	$2,995	$1.25	18d	1	0.92mi
1539 Wheatley Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2396	$2,800	$1.17	12d	1	0.92mi
2422 Arbutus Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2111	$2,045	$0.97	26d	1	0.94mi
1535 Calcot Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2036	$2,600	$1.28	17d	1	0.95mi
1211 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,400	$1.45	23d	1	0.96mi
1220 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,815	$1.06	9d	1	0.98mi
1281 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,805	$1.19	14d	1	0.99mi
1621 Sparrow Hawk Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,785	$1.17	23d	1	0.99mi
1285 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	1.00mi
1223 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	1.00mi
1228 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	1.01mi
1611 Sparrow Hawk Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	1.01mi
1289 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,785	$1.17	23d	1	1.01mi
1227 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,995	$1.35	45d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-03
   price $293,990 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

2. 2026-03-03
   price $291,990 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

3. 2026-01-03
   price $286,990 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

4. 2025-12-18
   price $285,990 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

5. 2025-12-03
   price $284,990 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

6. 2025-10-31
   price $283,990 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

7. 2025-10-30
   price $293,990 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

8. 2025-10-30
   price $283,990 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

9. 2025-09-24
   price $293,990 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

10. 2025-08-06
    price $313,990 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

11. 2025-08-03
    price $302,990 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

12. 2025-05-23
    listed $313,990 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Get ready to walk into a new home that's made with you and your family in mind. The Discovery home plans include brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and an upstairs loft. You can also invite friends and neighbors over for a cookout in your own private backyard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,850
• − Property taxes: −$4,780
• − Insurance: −$1,593
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,290
• − Management: −$2,290
• − Depreciation: −$9,270
• Taxable loss: −$9,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,267
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for minor updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior brick and updating landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Upgrading flooring to hardwood or tile in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and adds value
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior brick and updating landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading flooring to hardwood or tile in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Terrell

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #10213

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 28,206
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $293,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $286,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $285,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $283,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $293,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $283,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $293,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $313,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-23 Listed $313,990 Zillow