12906 NW 38th Ave · Reddick, FL 32686

$172,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,758 sqft · Manufactured public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1990 1.02 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HUGE manufactured home on 1 plus acre in farm country. All rooms are over sized with lots of open space. You don't want to miss this one!

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 121 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Manufactured Home; Zoning: A1; Lot size about 1.02 acres
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected; Septic tank; No municipal water (none listed)
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces east; Entry on one level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Stilt / on piling foundation; Completed condition; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Cleared lot; In-county parcel; Road surface: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s); Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $173k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.7% in Reddick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#845 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,659
• Equity at exit: $25,780

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,584
• Equity at exit: $14,949

Cash invested: $48,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32686

• Home prices YoY: -9.1%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,011/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,451

Max offer price $172,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $274	+0% $225	+5% $177	+10% $128
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $157	+0% $225	+5% $294	+10% $363
Rate	-1.0pp $313	-0.5pp $269	base $225	+0.5pp $181	+1.0pp $135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,225
• Closing costs: $5,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,900 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,900 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,900 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,900 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $172,900 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,900 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $172,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,900 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,900 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $172,900 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $178,900 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $178,900 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    status Active
17. 2026-05-13
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-22
    price $178,900
19. 2026-03-20
    price $189,900
20. 2026-02-11
    listed $199,900 Active
21. 2008-12-31
    historical
22. 2007-11-01
    listed $159,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,011 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,011 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,685
• − Property taxes: −$2,011
• − Insurance: −$864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$5,030
• Taxable loss: −$87
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21
• After-tax cash flow: $2,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Reddick

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #845
• US rank: #21164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,531

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.99%
• Current HPI: 269.4566
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+11.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $178,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-01 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,011 · -15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.