404 Cedar St · Crossett, AR 71635

$44,444

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1928 0.36 ac lot Est $63k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2 bedroom home in desired neighborhood with hardwood floors and beautiful kitchen.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1928

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approx. lot dimensions 89 x 155; Approx. acreage 0.36; Square footage per tax records: 1,050; Farm/ranch features: other (see remarks)
• Financial info: Financing available: cash, in-house financing, conventional loan
• HOA & community: Association/condo fees: other (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Other energy features (see remarks)
• Home design: Frame construction
• Construction: Crawl space foundation; 3-tab shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Paved road access; Property located inside city limits; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric space heater
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kit countertops (non-standard material); Sheetrock walls/ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($985 rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 5.4% in Crossett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#299 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Crossett School District (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #213 of 238 in AR (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $307 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashley County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,777 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.56%
• DSCR: 3.16
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $63,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
603 Walnut St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+9%)	24mo	$87,000	$76	46
203 Dr Martin Luther King Jr Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0	918 (-13%)	8mo	$35,000	$38	39
1107 Oak	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,192 (+14%)	8mo	$72,000	$60	37
1004 Cedar St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (+14%)	21mo	$62,000	$52	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $24,869
• Equity at exit: $6,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $62,936
• Equity at exit: $3,843

Cash invested: $12,444 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71635

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $271/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $347

Max offer price $44,444

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $529	-5% $516	+0% $504	+5% $491	+10% $478
Rent	-10% $426	-5% $465	+0% $504	+5% $543	+10% $581
Rate	-1.0pp $526	-0.5pp $515	base $504	+0.5pp $492	+1.0pp $480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,111
• Closing costs: $1,333
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,444 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $44,444 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,444 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $44,444 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,444 Price Change 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,444 Price Change 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,444 Price Change 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricestatusdays on market $44,444 Price Change 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,500 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,500 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,500 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $49,500 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,500 New Listing 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,500 New Listing 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,500 New Listing 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 New Listing 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 New Listing 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    listed $49,500 New Listing
19. 2001-05-03
    soldstatus $30,000
20. 2000-07-14
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $271 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$13/yr (+$1/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,490
• − Property taxes: −$271
• − Insurance: −$222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$945
• − Management: −$945
• − Depreciation: −$1,293
• Taxable income: $5,649
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,356
• After-tax cash flow: $4,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crossett School District
• NCES district ID: 0504800
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $37,682
• Composite: 16.73/100
• National rank: #9162
• State rank: #213 of 238 in AR

Livability — Crossett

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #20393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crossett, AR
• Population (ZIP): 10,368

Population outlook (Ashley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,757 people
• By 2030: 17,541 · -6.5%
• By 2040: 15,243 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 13,136 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 8,901 · -52.5%
• By 2100: 5,626 · -70.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.2% · R 73.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.9pp toward R · 2008: -28.1pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+43.2 2016: R+36.5 2012: R+25.4 2008: R+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.73%
• Current HPI: 125.616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+175.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $49,500 CARMLS
• 2001-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $271 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.