7029 Xander Ct · Ellenton, FL 34222

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · Manufactured · 443 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $226k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. PRISTINE FURNISHED HOME OFFERED-GATED COMMUNITY! Discover your perfect home in this exclusive boutique community within the sought-after 55+ neighborhood of Colony Cove. Located along the Gulf Coast, The Oaks at Colony Cove offers unmatched amenities and tranquility with * * Gulf access * * , six sparkling swimming pools, and five vibrant clubhouses for endless entertainment and relaxation. This private, gated enclave is limited to just 93 homes, ensuring a serene and close-knit atmosphere, with no future development to disturb the peace. Step into this stunning * * 2022 Palm Harbor home * * , where modern elegance meets functional design. As you ascend th

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Cathedral ceilings
• Gulf access

Tags

• GULF ACCESS
• SIX SPARKLING SWIMMING POOLS
• FIVE VIBRANT CLUBHOUSES
• PRIVATE GATED ENCLAVE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $165,000

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family property; Located at 7029 Xander Ct, Ellenton FL 34222
• Construction: Raleigh plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,393

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Raleigh plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.86%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,666
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3449 71st Ave E	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+1%)	1mo	$268,000	$191	85
99 Meadow Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+1%)	4mo	$120,000	$85	79
137 Osprey Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-3%)	3mo	$190,000	$141	79
3607 70th Ave E	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (+3%)	2mo	$275,000	$192	77
3445 71st Ave E	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (+7%)	4mo	$240,000	$162	73
3432 71st Ave E	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-7%)	4mo	$230,000	$177	73
77 Spoonbill Ln	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-3%)	2mo	$140,000	$104	72
3522 70th Ave E	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (-9%)	4mo	$245,000	$194	68
159 Osprey Cir Unit na	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-7%)	4mo	$181,000	$140	68
158 Nightingale Cir	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-8%)	2mo	$185,000	$144	61
51 Partridge Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,318 (-5%)	1mo	$233,000	$177	59
3108 Terra Siesta Blvd	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	0mo	$125,000	$100	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $9,724
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $55,508
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $686	-5% $629	+0% $572	+5% $515	+10% $458
Rent	-10% $401	-5% $486	+0% $572	+5% $658	+10% $743
Rate	-1.0pp $655	-0.5pp $614	base $572	+0.5pp $529	+1.0pp $486

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	4d	1	0.46mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	22d	1	0.50mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	15d	1	0.52mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,550	$1.53	4d	1	0.55mi
2711 80th Ave E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,836	$1.84	4d	1	0.71mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,829	$2.46	4d	37	0.72mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	4d	1	0.76mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	24d	1	0.82mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$3,300	$3.46	2d	67	0.88mi
4212 Long Lake Way Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	24d	1	0.89mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	24d	1	0.91mi
9039 41st St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,445	$1.47	4d	1	1.37mi
4648 Lindever Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,289	$1.53	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 436 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 435 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 433 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $4,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,081
• After-tax cash flow: $5,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B