413 Bluewater Dr · Bluewater, AZ 85344

$163,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · Manufactured · 155 Days on market

Built 1977 Fair condition 10,000 sqft lot $118/sqft · 11% above area Est $148k · 11% over ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

on lease land. .. NO Property Tax NO HOA. .. .. This custom-built home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with over 1,300 sq ft of comfortable living space. The private primary suite provides a peaceful retreat, while the convenient indoor laundry adds everyday ease. The kitchen features beautiful custom oak cabinetry with plenty of storage and workspace. Lot next door is also for sale $27,000 Step out onto the quaint front porch—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The property also includes a large utility building, ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Located in a desirable 24-hour guard-gated community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities including river access with a boat launch ramp, sparkling pool, and a secure, well-maintained setting. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a vacation getaway, this home offers space, comfort, and access to some of the best community features around.

Key facts

• Custom oak cabinetry
• Indoor laundry
• Custom built home

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT HOME
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• CUSTOM OAK CABINETRY
• QUAINT FRONT PORCH
• LARGE UTILITY BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $164k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Blake Primary School (354 students, 70% FRL); Wallace Jr High School (math 15% / reading 18%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 303 students, 73% FRL); Parker High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 507 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $144,319 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.93%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,052
• List price: $163,999
• Delta: 10.77%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
337 N Moonlight Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+4%)	1mo	$190,000	$132	86
405 N Stardust Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-1%)	10mo	$130,000	$95	86
409 N Misty Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+8%)	5mo	$122,000	$81	81
471 Bluewater Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-12%)	0mo	$124,900	$103	77
232 E Riverfront Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (-4%)	2mo	$350,000	$261	75
484 E Riverfront Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+0%)	15mo	$415,000	$298	72
338 N Moonlight Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-7%)	6mo	$132,000	$102	71
452 E Riverfront Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	8mo	$289,000	$232	66
245 E Riverfront Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-3%)	13mo	$275,000	$205	66
473 Bluewater Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+4%)	13mo	$143,500	$100	65
516 Bluewater Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+4%)	12mo	$265,000	$184	63
249 Bluewater Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	10mo	$157,308	$100	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,534
• Equity at exit: $24,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $39,774
• Equity at exit: $14,180

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85344

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$205 /mo · $2,460/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,435

Max offer price $163,999

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $570	-5% $513	+0% $457	+5% $400	+10% $343
Rent	-10% $298	-5% $377	+0% $457	+5% $536	+10% $616
Rate	-1.0pp $539	-0.5pp $498	base $457	+0.5pp $414	+1.0pp $371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $163,999 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $163,999 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $163,999 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $163,999 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $163,999 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $163,999 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $163,999 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $163,999 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $163,999 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $163,999 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $163,999 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $163,999 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $163,999 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $163,999 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $163,999 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $163,999 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $163,999 Active 133 DOM
18. 2026-03-02
    price $163,999 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    on lease land. .. NO Property Tax NO HOA. .. .. This custom-built home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with over 1,300 sq ft of comfortable living space. The private primary suite provides a peaceful retreat, while the convenient indoor laundry adds everyday ease. The kitchen features beautiful custom oak cabinetry with plenty of storage and workspace. Lot next door is also for sale $27,000 Step out onto the quaint front porch—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The property also includes a large utility building, ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Located in a desirable 24-hour guard-gated community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities including river access with a boat launch ramp, sparkling pool, and a secure, well-maintained setting. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a vacation getaway, this home offers space, comfort, and access to some of the best community features around.

19. 2026-01-20
    price $169,900 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    on lease land. .. NO Property Tax NO HOA. .. .. This custom-built home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with over 1,300 sq ft of comfortable living space. The private primary suite provides a peaceful retreat, while the convenient indoor laundry adds everyday ease. The kitchen features beautiful custom oak cabinetry with plenty of storage and workspace. Lot next door is also for sale $27,000 Step out onto the quaint front porch—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The property also includes a large utility building, ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Located in a desirable 24-hour guard-gated community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities including river access with a boat launch ramp, sparkling pool, and a secure, well-maintained setting. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a vacation getaway, this home offers space, comfort, and access to some of the best community features around.

20. 2026-01-17
    listed $175,000 Active 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    on lease land. .. NO Property Tax NO HOA. .. .. This custom-built home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with over 1,300 sq ft of comfortable living space. The private primary suite provides a peaceful retreat, while the convenient indoor laundry adds everyday ease. The kitchen features beautiful custom oak cabinetry with plenty of storage and workspace. Lot next door is also for sale $27,000 Step out onto the quaint front porch—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The property also includes a large utility building, ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Located in a desirable 24-hour guard-gated community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities including river access with a boat launch ramp, sparkling pool, and a secure, well-maintained setting. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a vacation getaway, this home offers space, comfort, and access to some of the best community features around.

21. 2025-11-17
    historical
22. 2025-10-15
    price $255,900
23. 2025-09-10
    listed $274,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,186
• − Property taxes: −$2,460
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable income: $3,049
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$732
• After-tax cash flow: $4,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathroom, exterior, and HVAC system.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major exterior siding — poor condition
• Moderate HVAC unit — visible and likely outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances appearance and value
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes and increases value
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes and increases value
• Both repair/replace HVAC unit — improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC unit · visible and likely outdated	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$24,000–95,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances appearance and value ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both repair/replace HVAC unit — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parker Unified School District (4510)
• NCES district ID: 0405980
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,354
• Composite: 14.76/100
• National rank: #9392
• State rank: #200 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bluewater

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #12872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bluewater, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,069

Population outlook (La Paz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,409 people
• By 2030: 17,592 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,600 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 16,328 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 17,075 · -7.2%
• By 2100: 17,042 · -7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Native American 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · La Paz

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.6% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.38%
• Current HPI: 198.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-40.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $163,999 LHAR
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $169,900 LHAR
• 2026-01-17 Listed $175,000 LHAR
• 2025-11-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $255,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $274,500 ARMLS